NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The HRRR develops more rain tonight.
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Moderate rain and breezy here. You can see axis of steadiest rain North of NYC.
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The HRRR has a swath of 2-4” today over extreme NNJ and the LHV.
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Yes the models pivot it through our region.
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You can see the radar start to fill in as the remnant low starts to feel the moisture influx thanks to SE flow off the water.
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It’s pouring here with no echos overhead on radar.
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Pouring here with hardly nothing showing on radar
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18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.
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Yes I know, my point is that it’s so common for them that it was hardly noteworthy. And we get 50 page threads for a dusting so there’s that.
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https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1705643455278407977?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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It made LF as a TS in an area that gets hurricanes about as often as we see blizzards.
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You love to see it.
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I agree, however the HRRR wants to send the heavy stuff to SNE tomorrow morning instead of here.
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All that dry air on the East side of the circulation makes me think it will dry out after the initial heavy rain tomorrow AM. Looks like most of the heavy stuff gets pushed into SNE. We’ll see.
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Looks like there’s a decent amount of lightning with the convection West of the center.
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The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.
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We should be good for a widespread 1-2" on the first batch with potential for more and embedded tornado threat Saturday morning. If Sunday comes to fruition that's how we could see 4"+
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12z HMON hurricane model is a real soaker for Saturday night into Sunday. Not sure about earlier.
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Fujiwara with an ULL off the east coast.
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The real story will be the coastal flooding, inland fresh water flooding and potential for severe weather along the mid-atlantic/northeast coasts.
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The only saving grace is that the rain at least for Saturday morning/afternoon looks to be progressive. We will have to see if the convection that the 3k NAM has for Saturday evening comes to fruition.
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12z RGEM
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This should be fun
