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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I was close lol
  2. NJwx85
    The whole if it’s not snow nobody cares is lame. You might not care, and no need to clog up this thread with BS then.
  3. NJwx85
    Not for people that live in low lying or flood prone areas. And power outages will be an issue with saturated ground and strong wind gusts.
  4. NJwx85
    NYC is 34 degrees on both the 12z and 18z runs at 06z Sunday.
  5. NJwx85
    The GFS is even more amped up for the next system. That one will be the much bigger story than a few inches of snow.
  6. NJwx85
    GFS overall is about the same for NYC proper but better inland.
  7. NJwx85
    It’s better with both.
  8. NJwx85
    First glance 18z GFS was an improvement.
  9. NJwx85
    If you look at 3k NAM at 01z sim radar you’ll see a big dry slot over our area with thunderstorms along the NJ coast near the SLP. Those storms will have the potential of robbing us of dynamics and moisture due to subsidence. This is just one model so it’s not necessarily correct.
  10. NJwx85
    The 18z 3k NAM soundings are a horror show for the coast. 33 degrees in NYC at 23z, okay fine. 35 degrees at 01z, warm layers at 850mb and below 950mb. Up to 37 degrees at 04z. Even Putnam/Dutchess area eventually gets into the 33/34 range. Also 3k not as bullish on Sunday snow as 12k. A lot of what falls on the immediate coast will be washed away by sunrise.
  11. NJwx85
    It’s not reliable at this range.
  12. NJwx85
    The Euro has another big storm MLK weekend.
  13. NJwx85
    The snow melt will be in Northern NJ and places like Orange and Rockland that feed the river systems in NJ.
  14. NJwx85
    The models were showing a well OTS solution and then I think the 12z Euro on 12/24 started the trend back. Models are a lot improved from then. Hard to believe I’ve been on this board since before that storm.
  15. NJwx85
    It depends on location in NYC. 2-4” at CP is a decent bet. JFK is toast.
  16. NJwx85
    The 12z GGEM was great 20 miles inland and lingers snow Sunday.
  17. NJwx85
    I’m in Bardonia. 3-5” here, maybe isolated 6-8” if it overperforms.
  18. NJwx85
    I still think that with such a crappy air mass that it’s not going to matter much. Yesterday I was confident in 6-10” up here in Rockland. I think 3-5” is a better call today. We shall see. If it comes in as a wall it could briefly over perform. The problem is the strong Easterly flow along the coast until after the low passes. Over the ocean temps will be in the mid 40’s.
  19. NJwx85
    Went back and looked at my original post. I said almost all rain, maybe an hour or two of slop. I stand by that statement. I don’t believe any sites in NYC record over 2” unless things trend differently today.
  20. NJwx85
    NYC receives around 0.3 QPF before issues begin on the 12z GFS. That’s why you will see 2-4” on Kuchera. But that’s mostly on grassy and cold surfaces. And Brooklyn and SI change over very fast.
  21. NJwx85
    2-4” in NYC, less in Brooklyn and SI. If it really comes down hard I could see that on colder surfaces.
  22. NJwx85
    If you look at the 12z GFS soundings you’re looking at a quick flip to rain or mixed precip after only an hour or two. Perhaps it’s too warm. We shall see.
  23. NJwx85
    I grew up in Pompton Plains. My parents still live there. We always did great in marginal storms.
  24. NJwx85
    You’re using a 10:1 map which is highly innacurate in this storm. Temps are in the mid 30’s. At best you’re looking at 1-3” in NYC and in the outer boroughs facing the water that could be generous. Look at the positive snow growth. White rain doesn’t count.
  25. NJwx85
    Yes. You have be across before 7am on morning rush hour going South and the evening commutes can be terrible.
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