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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.
  2. NJwx85
    High res models, HRDPS, 3k NAM, FV3, ARW models indicating heaviest axis of rain over I-95 and points just to the North and West (2-4"+) with less amounts of 1-2" for the city South and East where the strongest winds will be.
  3. NJwx85
    I know it has been mentioned before, good storm threat a week from today. Probably the best chance of snow for the coast that we have seen in over a year.
  4. NJwx85
    Lots of severe weather/tornados in Southern Alabama, Southwest Georgia and Northern Florida today. Usually indicative of the strength of the dynamics involved with a system. Surface low near St. Louis is already sub 990mb. Forecasted to deepen to sub 975mb before occluding over Lake Michigan late tonight.
  5. NJwx85
    Yes but the ground will be saturated.
  6. NJwx85
    Especially on LI, there will be about a 6 hour period of sustained low end TS force winds with potential for much higher gusts. 06z GFS 925mb winds are in excess of 80kts on the East end late tonight.
  7. NJwx85
    Shameful to see some here downplaying the threat and contradicting the NWS. The warnings are warranted. The flow at the surface will be off the ocean which will help funnel the stronger winds into the region. Strong convection will help to mix down stronger winds. Lack of inversion is key here. 3k NAM has 125kts at 850mb along the NJ coast at 06z.
  8. NJwx85
    Why is that? I don’t see an inversion on the soundings.
  9. NJwx85
    Biggest difference with this system over the one in December is the wind threat well inland. 55-60 might be marginally notable on LI but it’s pretty serious in NJ, E PA and Southern portions of NY State where there are heavily wooded areas, exposed power lines and saturated grounds. Many areas in NNJ are less than 2 weeks removed from a major flood. Water tables are high and reservoirs are already at capacity. Bad combo to add that with pending rapid snow melt. Reminds me of March 2010 system.
  10. NJwx85
    Still got way more than NYC.
  11. NJwx85
    Today amounted to white rain. Not sure it even stuck to the existing snow pack. Sun came out around 2pm. Can’t wait for my tropical storm Tuesday night.
  12. NJwx85
    Coming down harder at this point then it did last night but the roads are already clear and treated so it’s only sticking to non paved surfaces.
  13. NJwx85
    New WWA here till 5pm for up to 2 additional inches.
  14. NJwx85
    Both the 12z HRRR and 3k NAM have a widespread 1-3” today.
  15. NJwx85
    Moderate snow has started here in the last 10 minutes.
  16. NJwx85
    Mostly sleet here at the moment. 3.5” OTG.
  17. NJwx85
    Missed it thanks
  18. NJwx85
    No mention of snow tomorrow.
  19. NJwx85
    The dry air is your friend. It’s representitive of where the cold air is. You will be better off when the real stuff arrives later.
  20. NJwx85
    We eat there everytime we golf up that way. Usually either Black Bear or one of the Crystal Springs courses.
  21. NJwx85
    Snow has begun at my parents house in NE Morris County.
  22. NJwx85
    I think the freezing line is West of us, closer to NW Rockland. Good news is sun angle won’t be an issue lol.
  23. NJwx85
    I’m at 34 degrees just North and East of the 87/PIP interchange.
  24. NJwx85
    I think it’s more Ringwood to Sloatsburg to Pomona to West Haverstraw to Bear Mountain.
  25. NJwx85
    I think 4-6” is a good call near the Palisades Parkway in Rockland. The cutoff should be close to the mall. Big uptick in elevation right after the mall going NB on 87.
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