hlcater

Erika part 2!!

Conditions are only marginally conducive for the next several days. Shear isn't actually too bad with values fairly consistently between 10-15kts or so, but there's just an enormous amount of dry air hanging out in the central/tropical atlantic at the moment with frequent intrusions shown on both the GFS and EC. The moisture envelope improves somewhat once TD7 tracks near/north of the greater antilles.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a run at major status. Water temps are marginal but there is still quite a bit of CAPE available due to cold air aloft. Outflow pattern is good/excellent over the next 72 hours.

hype level 3/10 with potential to increase that in the coming days

pretty weak sauce rn

We really did get lucky over the past week or so. Far enough southeast to avoid 10-15" of rain, but far enough northeast to avoid expanding drought conditions. Zero complaints here.

Looked for a second earlier this spring that we might escape our drought that’s been ongoing since 2019. However the next 10 days, and summer as a whole, is looking rather bleak for precip chances in the western sub.

I wouldn't say producing is a certainty just yet, seems to be paralleling just on the cool side of the boundary for now.

Got word that there's a tornado in progress with that storm now. Now he's less sure that it was a tornado. Radar appearance suggests that it may not be ready quite yet.

Yea that storm has the lake breeze, whether or not it can turn right and ride it is probably the difference between nothing happening and a major tornado in the chicago metro.

Gotta move west of the lakes hoss

It's looking up for us over the next 10 days or so. System traversing the country Wed-Fri should yield tstm and perhaps severe wx opportunities.

Someone needs to get the dulcolax

They haven’t even started here. One of the later years I can remember.

Oh wow I just realized I posted in the wrong thread. Oh well

Y'all had to know it was coming, I just hadn't gotten time to type it up since I've been super busy and for all intents and purposes did not have time to go to NW IA tuesday but I did anyways because the setup was gas. Targeted Sac City area primarily due to the presence of an area of enhanced moisture convergence giving me high confidence the area near Denison would convect. This strategy was spot on. For awhile, the storms really struggled with fast motions and being whisked away north of the front and it took multiple updrafts before one finally got established on the boundary. I suspect there was still quite a bit of surface stability here, as inflow temps ranged from 66-70 depending on where I was, but inflow was impressively strong at 60+mph immediately prior to the tornado, and at multiple points afterward. I suspect the very strong (and more importantly spatially large) mesocyclone and impressive hodographs helped compensate for this surface stability and enabled the Palmer tornado to develop. Due to incredible fortuitous circumstances, the stage of the tornado which were brilliantly captured by Jim Tang (and others) occurred behind trees. However, impressive views were still to be had of later stages of the tornado lifecycle. The storm filled in with rain after this and I didn't see any of the subsequent tornadoes. Although I very nearly drove into one near Gilmore City and was caught in the rear inflow jet and, cognizant about what may lay ahead shrouded in rain, I pulled off the road and waited in winds which were likely exceeding 90mph and inflicted heavy damage to neighboring trees. Up ahead, a farmstead had a destroyed outbuilding and substantial tree damage, which was deemed to be caused by an EF1 tornado. The storm could never shake mergers from the rear either, and I called the chase at 7:30pm

Iowa's setup tomorrow looks primed. Moisture is currently overperforming HRRR progs, zero morning convection concerns, vectors off the boundary are 90 degrees, massive hodographs with large 0-3km curvature will support supercells, 2500-3000 MLCAPE will ensure updrafts are robust... There really isn't anything that's missing. I was previously not super confident moisture would reach the triple point with sufficient quality, but obs tonight are suggesting that will not be an issue. Therefore, the only thing that remains that could disrupt or otherwise attenuate the setup is if the core of the lift is either slow and doesnt overspread the warm sector before dark or delivers a glancing blow such that storms that do initiate are too far NW and are elevated. Would probably be introducing a 15H at 06z for NW IA.

College Station sounding does have about 1000 MLCAPE and a gigantic hodograph.

My total in IC was 4.7"

Strongest tornado I've seen so far. Bummed I wasn't in front of it while it was still visible near winterset but oh well.

2.9" in IC.

stole it from pivotal

I figured I should immortalize it for you