hlcater

Can see that on radar. Though it doesn't look like an EWRC to me. Looks like growing pains of inner core organization. Also supported by the fact that there is no outer wind maxima visible on the aircraft data.

Eye diameter on radar is about 10nm at 20,000ft so it is likely ~9.5nm at flight level and we had a drop of probably 3-4mb between passes. From 972 to probably 968ish. Looks like its go time. Update: 968 confirmed. That's a big pressure drop.

91kts FL is what they based it on, along with the pretense that the NE quad has not been sampled yet. Decent strengthening from the last pass, but perhaps not as rapid as models had indicated. However, the storm is in good shape for more robust strengthening tonight. Still think an intensity of 110-115kts is a pretty reasonable guess for landfall.

At flight level. Surface data suggests 125-130kts.

recon is in the air.

No fix until 23:30z. Probably will be past peak by then.

One thing to notice over the past several hours is the transition from spotty and isolated thunderstorm activity to a coherent and organized curved band that is now wrapping around to the south side and over the center. The purple X is roughly where the center is on visible and on radar data. There is some moderate northly shear being imparted on the system today but the improvement in convective pattern suggests that Idalia has continued steady intensification.

Heat or not the first half of september is looking majorly dry. Dry enough that some areas could see their first ever occurrence of D4 conditions if something doesn't change my mid-late month. River levels in eastern Iowa have eclipsed 2012 and there's little reason to be optimistic. Summer currently polling at a solid F- for me.

The thing here is that the circulation is small enough and the current convective intensity is low enough that if a large MCS were to fire to the east, either the current center would be pulled east toward it, or a new center could form.

The reply guys on Twitter really got to them

This is 2-3 days ahead of schedule in the Yucatán channel. As it meanders in a low shear environment what I’ll be watching for is if and how quickly a solid CDO/inner core develops. If we can get one going prior to shear increasing in 2-3 days, then the ceiling for this is much higher.

Don’t feel confident enough to commit to a major hurricane until we get a better idea of what shear will look like as this transits the gulf. With a very dry continental airmass lurking just west of the storm impacts of any shear could be exacerbated

Someone has not looked at a 500mb map for at least the last 10 days and it shows

As the GFS now develops this system and there is 70% odds of development in the next 7 days, it's probably time for a thread on this one. It also doesn't look like the low is defined enough yet in the W carib to be designated as an invest, but when it presumably does, it'll be 93L.

nah

Looking closed on visible now

Maybe, but you also need just a little bit of shear and disorganization to get a singular updraft to be sufficiently strong to do that.

This is pretty neat

Lol I was about to come in here and say you could make an argument for classifying this based on vis. I didn't know recon is in there. Clearly a closed low on the eastern side of the convective shield. Also with the minimum extrap of 1000.5. Very nice little low in there.

Nice analysis here. Think of all the waves, the one with the best odds of being notable long term is the AEW just now leaving Africa. I think 90L develops into a TD/TS over the next day or so but dry air and westerly shear courtesy of the TUTT should keep a lid on that one. There is a chance that it stays disorganized and slides far enough south to avoid getting picked up and drawn northward, but the vigor of the wave currently kinda argues against that. Would expect it to be pulled up into the western atlantic with perhaps a rainfall threat in Hispaniola as it does so.

With the way things are going on satellite, I am not convinced that we have peaked in intensity. Think we make another run at 125-130kts tonight. Recon will tell.

Not in the cooler waters yet. Probably by tomorrow AM though.

We'll also have recon tomorrow.

Classic deep tropical cane right now with the rapidly cooling CDO and expansive spiral banding in all quadrants. Feel like the ceiling is pretty high over the next 24-36 hours.