hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess.
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Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.
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This thing is TINY. 6nm wide eye and a hurricane force wind diameter of maybe 15-20nm. Still strengthening in earnest and that CDO is freezing cold. If the eye closes and pops, pressure is gonna free fall I think.
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no
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You would've saved calories by not posting this.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land.
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Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it.
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cue excitement. ~985 extrap, 55kts and a nice inner core structure in the NW quad.
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Yea I know
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SteveCop bringing the hype. Expecting no less than 900mb in 24hrs.
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PTC 26 is on the way.
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I’m pretty bullish on this one relatively speaking so went ahead and made a thread.
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About time for this one. Models are already fairly robust with 92L with the majority reaching hurricane strength and a good chunk with major status. Environment through D4 is just about as good as it gets, so the intensity ceiling is probably quite high on this one relatively speaking. Cool water, shear and dry air should ensure weakening by landfall at least.
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92L looks mildly interesting in the medium term. Should have a nice anticyclone/outflow pattern... in the W carib in October.
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Probably gonna be a big winter for tornadoes and severe weather across the SE.
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What a storm.
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Imagine wasting hodographs like these because 700mb temps are 2 degrees too warm.
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I wish it was. At least then we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
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DOA
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The thermal ridge at 700mb is going to be too strong. It will initate, but after dark and along the CF.
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The T/Td intersection below the EML is cloud cover, and one of the reasons why I’m not at all confident in initiation. That and the stout EML above it are extremely problematic. Regarding the hodograph, veered flow probably isn’t an issue here as the flow aloft is NWly and the resulting hodograph is quite tasty imo. I don’t have many concerns about the parameter space not being able to support a severe/tornado threat. For me, it’s more of what is the chance we get a robust updraft?
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Some models either do initiate or become extremely close to initiating a storm in this environment. E IA/N IL. I still don’t like EML strength(14c 700s) and subsidence in IA. But far E IA and IL might have a chance....
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Michael is my ideal hurricane. Fast moving, landfall at 90 degrees, in an area thats not too populated, in the middle of the day, clear eye/intensifying into landfall, in the US, the list goes on.
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Most models look like that sunday in Iowa. Huge deal if they somehow end up uncapped, but with a reservoir of 14c 700s to the west AND westerly 700mb flow, that's probably not happening.
