hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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no
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You would've saved calories by not posting this.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land.
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Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it.
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cue excitement. ~985 extrap, 55kts and a nice inner core structure in the NW quad.
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Yea I know
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SteveCop bringing the hype. Expecting no less than 900mb in 24hrs.
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PTC 26 is on the way.
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I’m pretty bullish on this one relatively speaking so went ahead and made a thread.
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About time for this one. Models are already fairly robust with 92L with the majority reaching hurricane strength and a good chunk with major status. Environment through D4 is just about as good as it gets, so the intensity ceiling is probably quite high on this one relatively speaking. Cool water, shear and dry air should ensure weakening by landfall at least.
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92L looks mildly interesting in the medium term. Should have a nice anticyclone/outflow pattern... in the W carib in October.
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Probably gonna be a big winter for tornadoes and severe weather across the SE.
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lives were SAVED on 3/28
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the 2020 severe season started and ended in 45 minutes. 4/7 was okay locally, and 5/23 was fair. But the census for this season yields 2 mediocre severe events, and one exceptional one. I'd honestly trade the derecho for more/better tornado days than we had this year.
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Food for thought. I wonder if the dry air in vicinity is actually helping the current convective burst by allowing for steeper lapse rates (on the order of ~6.5c/km), much steeper than the typical 5s you'd expect in a moist neutral profile. More robust updrafts in the short term yielding a better radar configuration than you'd otherwise expect given IR appearance and environment??? That said, that same dry air almost certainly brings this to an end fairly soon here.
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Looks intriguing, but environment as a whole is still rather unfavorable, so I have my doubts that this feature will have any meaningful persistence. It'll be very easily disrupted.
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some mad girth on that one
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Sure. When there was no radar you’d 100% miss that radar signature
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if nothing else, they've got it named now and can lengthen the path in post if necessary.
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lol
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I think that's probably our window for real storm. There will be a period of strong shear and poorly favorable conditions starting late tomorrow and persisting through the weekend. Flow is a bit better aligned as this thing turns around and heads east.
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The environment down the line for this one is not especially conducive. While models do show development, I’ll be surprised if this becomes more than a minimal cane. Fropa in a few days will introduce dry, stable air into the area in association with 20-30kts of shear.
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All you need to do to know what that is like is spend a winter in Iceland/Svalbard or the Bering coastline in AK.
