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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Looking at the 12z runs
  2. hlcater
    This is one of the worst 384hr GEFS means I can recall... Quite literally zero winners on here.
  3. hlcater
    When weak/strung out is an option, its usually a pretty safe bet to go with that
  4. hlcater
    Euro continues to be slower and much more amplified. Bomb in the lakes by this weekend.
  5. hlcater
    more like WAP
  6. hlcater
    Don't know whether you can call that signal after D10 a -EPO
  7. hlcater
    This was certainly unexpected
  8. hlcater
    Gut saying WAD this year. We'll see.
  9. hlcater
    Gonna go out and say it snows at least one (1) time for most members of the sub.
  10. hlcater
    Kinda wonder if we start impinging on length records depending on eventual track. There is potential that Phillippe is still around in 10 days.
  11. hlcater
    Idk that eye has cleared out considerably and cloud tops have continued to cool. Interested to see what the plane finds here shortly. Has a shot at cat 3 over the next 24 hours or so imo.
  12. hlcater
    The decay was pretty neat to watch actually. Cold water starved the cyclone from the inside out.
  13. hlcater
    This is far from the worst offender (probably not even top 10) but there's a clear difference in threads that involve the northeast and those that do not .
  14. hlcater
    Remarkable how the main thread becomes unusable whenever the storm *could* pass within 500 miles of the northeast
  15. hlcater
    This is whole situation reminds me a lot of hurricane lane in the central pacific a few years ago
  16. hlcater
    142SFMR and 147FL on the most recent pass.
  17. hlcater
    Absolute beauty of a cyclone out there today
  18. hlcater
    Haha……..
  19. hlcater
    So Jose might be a hurricane
  20. hlcater
    2 hours out. It’ll be well timed I think
  21. hlcater
    The other thing that’s just crazy to me is that as soon as the eyewall went nuts the coherent band that had been forming disintegrated completely and is now multiple bands all spiraling into the eyewall. That seems like more than just a coincidence.
  22. hlcater
    It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now.
  23. hlcater
    Don't think you can call it that yet. Still clear evidence that the band is spiraling inward and some of the "moat" is probably from very strong convection in the northern semicircle of the eyewall. I've noticed this a few other times tonight. If that outer band continues to gain substance then maybe though I think we're probably a few hours from that minimum.
  24. hlcater
    I disagree. While mesovorts are likely present and can warp the edge of the eye to a degree, think there really is an ellipse. My best guess is due to asymmetry in the convective bursts that we've seen tonight. There's typically only 1 burst ongoing at a time while the other side of the hurricane is "quiet". Not 100% on that one tho and curious to other input if people have it.
  25. hlcater
    Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that
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