hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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SPC goes 5% for wind/tor. Given degree of shear and really low level instability that isn't *awful*, I could see a few mesovort type tors in the line. HRRRs are pretty bullish, even exceeding 1000 SBCAPE. Storm mode looks poor overall here. Doesn't look especially chaseable even if there are tornadoes to be had.
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Satellite presentation degrading and EWRC becoming increasingly dominant. That's probably all she wrote for this one. Doesn't look like it ever got 5 despite the incredible satellite presentation.
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It might be, waiting on the next pass for sure. Though I think the truly rapid intensification is probably over with a well defined concentric band taking shape.
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She's not gonna get much lower and faster when the core looks like this lol. I'm not sure whether or not this peaked a few hours ago though.
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Yes there is.
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That's interesting to say the least.
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Eye is up to 10C, the warmest it has been. Perfect timing by recon.
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Lol eta looks the best there by far and it's not close. We'll know in about 15 minutes whether or not it's got the punch to back up that sat presentation.
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Revising my guess from 10 whole minutes ago to 901/150kt. I'll stick with that one.
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dont count your chickens lol. This could be the 5/20 of hurricanes. But realistically, real good chance this is sub 910, and a not-so-outside shot at sub 900.
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It's already wobbling and a concentric band is becoming evident on San Andres radar. If it's not at peak now, peak is not far away. I'll go 911mb/145kt.
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Eye temp of +0.9C.
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Eta's eye is warming multiple degrees every satellite scan. Now up to -16. (I promise I wont play by play it )
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-18c core temp with a -84c convective ring. Almost certainly a high end cat 4, and if this continues, recon may very well find a cat 5. (there's one whole pixel of -18c in the core). Checked it on RealEarth.
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A 1 out of 4 recon success rate over the past 24 hours is pretty inexcusable. Especially when these flights cost pennies on the dollar for the government to run.
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Now closed -80c ring with pockets of -90c with the strongest updrafts. Definitely acting like it's feeling some of that SSWly shear I was talking about earlier. Holds 10-15kts through landfall by the looks.
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woooooooaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh about as healthy as a pinhole can possibly be.
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Shear is currently reaching a relative maximum prior to landfall and should hold steady or gradually weaken later today. Currently analyzed between 10-15kts, so ever so slightly stronger than the RAMMB would have it.
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Cat 4 is probably a good bet right now. Would like recon to get in there sooner rather than later, as eye is probably no wider than 6nm or so. An eye that small is not stable and I'm not confident that it maintains itself long enough should the 1730z recon plane end up getting canceled. Think it peaks sometime later today/this evening and kinda just holds steady into landfall. Whether or not this attains cat 5 to me is solely a function of how long can the pinhole remain stable?
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We have Hurricane Eta on ATCF 65kt/987
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530z
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Looking like it’s getting ready to undergo RI. Multiple impressive bursts rotating tightly around the center. In contrast to Delta and Zeta which could seemingly only fire one burst at a time.
