hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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we wont be
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There's been a Wisconsinan, Illinoian, Nebraskan and Kansan glaciation. Time to rebuild the Laurentide ice sheet and call it the Iowan glaciation
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Holy mother of blocks
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This is more for W IL and IA, but one thing to keep in mind with this system are the pristine conditions that will exist for blowing and drifting snow associated with the passage of the arctic front and departing low. GFSs gust 45-50mph, NAM/Euro 40-45. Additionally, rain showers and melting in the warm sector will ensure that the existing snowpack will have a layer of ice on top of it, exacerbating any blowing that does occur.
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Some of these GFS runs (with some support of GEFS) just keep reloading the cold over and over again through the middle of the month; very Feb 2019 style.
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The plume of steep mid level lapse rates shares some overlap with the arctic front/cold sector immediately behind the low as well. Pretty nice soundings for snow all and all...
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While verifying the 9.7” family got, they sent a pic of about 8.5” on the driveway. While still very impressive; that seems more reasonable to me and I think I’m gonna go with that instead.
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Going on something impressive with continuous snow depth here. 18" down in Hiawatha, 12" down here in IC. Continuous snow cover since December 29th and looks poised to continue well into February. Perhaps we can even add some to it before the real cold comes down. Here's hoping?
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Okay get this... my family measured 9.7!! inches in Hiawatha where they had a heavy band pivot over them for much of the night. I measured 4.2” in Iowa city. Honestly more than I thought I was gonna get.
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A very wet and slushy 1.1" of snow and sleet in IC. This is easily the worst snow event of the winter here by far. From starting as rain, sitting in sleet for far longer than forecast, and the drying of precip as we switched to snow, just unenjoyable all around.
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Nah, you guys will get 3-4 easy. Light snow will persist overnight and into the morning. Thinking even IC, which has been screw zone central so far with this system will still pick up 2.5-3" of snow through noon tomorrow.
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Now that we have switched, all our precip is rapidly drying out. This storm is going to be a significant underperformer. Just 15 miles to my north, it is ripping hard in a very persistent heavy band. I suspect it is producing some subsidence and causing returns to it's immediate south and east to peter out. Unbelievably bad luck with this one.
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After 39 years, the sleet has finally ended and we've switched to light snow, over 2 hours behind schedule. Not really expecting much more than 2-3" at this point. Good news is, we got a nice half inch of sleet to serve as a base!
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Iowa City is one of the last spots in the state to switch to snow. We just love to see that
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All sleet now in IC. Expecting a changeover to snow in 45min to an hour.
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Precip as of now is mostly sleet in Iowa City.
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80/20 mix of plain rain and sleet right now. Temp on my deck is 33.3. HRRR shows a fairly quick changeover here in a few hours, so we'll see.
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It also hangs the deformation zone over E IA for several hours early tomorrow morning. Which is why we see 6" as opposed to the 4" it would be otherwise.
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The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.
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Lowering my IC call to 2". Expecting the majority of precip to fall as rain. Rain on top of 8" of snow, positively gross.
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Not seeing much reason to modify my 3" call for IC. Things generally look to start as rain here and transition to snow overnight. One potential wildcard in heavy rates forcing a switch quicker than anticipated, or more snow behind the low than currently forecast.
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Trend tonight has been a bit more rain than earlier runs for those west. As such, I'm gonna have a conservative first call of just 3" for Iowa City as I expect to lose a good 0.2-0.3 QPF to rain.
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What about the presence of existing higher ratio snowfall complicating things? That may even blow more than the falling snow, at least until it gets BURIED.
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Sign me up for the next one. Unironically might have to consider the prospect of chasing derechos now.
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12" is the number to break and, officially, has held since 1973.
