hlcater

Numerous mesovorts with a pentagonal eyewall on Tampa bay radar now. In the past these pentagonal eyes have been harbingers of RI. May be something to watch for as we close in on landfall

I don’t mean to rain on your parade but posting satellite and radar gifs every 15 min is unnecessary and clogs the thread seeing as we all have access to it.

Definitely legit too. Look at the temp spike/Td drop associated with it

Recon just got the first fix of the evening. 990.5 extrap

Beast emerging in the south china sea

Starting to wonder if this starts building an inner core sooner rather than later. The surface circulation is already well defined and appears to be becoming stacked under the sprawling mid-level circulation. This process seems to be complicated only by dry entrainment off of Cuba’s higher terrain, with deep convection widespread in all 4 quadrants otherwise. I’m not seeing much reason why a quicker pace of intensification shouldn’t ensue once that gets mixed out, especially if convection continues to develop over the center.

Slow to the punch on this one but it took me awhile to get all these put together since I still really dont know what I'm doing. All timer at these latitudes for sure.

Probably 6" out there right now. Flake size has been small to pixie dust during the entire event. Hoping the coherent defo band out west holds on as it translates east. Otherwise, just gonna be pretty light stuff the rest of the evening. Could still pick up 1-2" but over the course of 7-8 hours...

Eyeballing ~5" outside in IC. With all the blowing though, that is kind of a crapshoot. Radar looks good for the first time this entire storm, so I am optimistic that we can still reach the 8-10" advertised.

The 13.2" report in Hiawatha was mine and is from IC, it's misplaced on the map. I assume because the address associated with my spotter ID is a Hiawatha address. So at least that one is bogus.

idk why those are all so blurry but you get the idea

Crazy how different the scene is over a relatively short distance. I will end this storm with 13.2" in IC in what will go down as a top 3 storm for me. Rarely do you get the intensity/duration of snow that we did with this storm, and it happened during the day to boot. Started off this morning with giant aggregates and very sloppy ratios (prob 5-6:1) and gradually transitioned towards smaller, drier flakes. The stuff falling in this final band looks and feels north of 10:1.

Probably ~9” out there right now and still coming down. Conditions have really deteriorated over the past few hours with vis routinely less than 1/4 mile

Closing on 8" in IC.

No one likes the GFS anyways

2.7" down so far. HRRR is extremely bullish on the defo band tomorrow. If it's right, 10-12 could be achievable. 6" is a lock.

Conditions/impacts wise I bet it stacks up well with 12/23/22. 4-6" of snow and 45-50mph gusts seems like a reasonable first guess here. We're also in the jackpot zone for this storm so we don't really get to complain lol

???????

Was expecting a rug pull this morning and am not seeing one. Just about as locked in for 6-10" as you can be. Let's roll

Now this is quite the ensemble mean. More than half the members in the low 970s/960s. EDIT: Think that's the first time I've seen such a deep mean at this range. If there was any doubt that there was big league potential with this one

Also has a really bizarre (relative to other guidance especially) evolution of the weekend system. Super far NW and a much more anemic looking cold sector. Still gets into the mid 970s however.

EPS mean

Dw guys it’s coming home. Chicago folks need to get their barometers ready and put eurythmics on blast