hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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The area of Cuba that Ida will be tracking over is relatively flat forest land. Not horribly unlike the Yucatán.
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You clearly aren't very familiar with what board you're on .
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Convective bursts ongoing overtop the center currently. Actually, they may be slightly offset to the northeast.
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The GFS's depiction of the gulf as 99L traverses it is exceptionally favorable for a significant tropical cyclone to say the least. Whew.
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Strong updrafts crashing into stable air at the surface is the secret sauce.
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4 MCSs in 1 image, all along the same boundary. Very impressive.
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It's been having bursts of convection more often than not over the past 72 hours. It's absolutely a TC. Barely, but sometimes barely is all you need.
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Not seeing any observations to indicate henri is a hurricane right now.
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Hot take: this isn’t a hurricane right now. I haven’t seen any observations to indicate that it is
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That stretch (of mostly rural) Mexican coastline definitely got a surprise tonight. A rapidly intensifying high end cat 3 is no joke.
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Thinking we see some #EXTREME coastal erosion and inland flooding from this one
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Grace's pressure is 992mb on the extrap just offshore of the Yucatan. Also considerably lower than the NHC current estimate of 999. Surface winds are stronger too with 55kts in the NE quad, where as the NHC has winds pegged at 45kts.
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I regret opening this thread. Wowzers.
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And indeed it is. Take a look at sondes 14-17.
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Looks like grace took a bite of dry air over the last few hours.
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Nicely stacked too.
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1004 on the extrap. So mild strengthening occurred while grace transited Jamaica.
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Nice poleward outflow channel developing too as seen on the GFS frame below. However, this may get impinged upon by that upper level ridge as soon as tomorrow. Will have to see how it evolves
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Well the LLC is not where I thought it was going to be, and the system is *incredibly* isobaric. The large envelope is likely why there's such expansive thunderstorm activity. Bodes for a fairly resilient system if nothing else.
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the center has relocated significantly to the south.
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Grace is almost surely back to TS strength. With such a persistent convective complex(even if decoupled), I find it hard to imagine that there’s not sustained 35-40kt winds somewhere, especially since it was already basically there this morning.
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Curious to see how Grace interacts with this lee cyclone off the tip of the Haitian peninsula. Genuinely not sure what this sort of interaction might entail.
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better evacuate now
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Starting to wonder with the current degree of disorganization if a passage south of the greater antilles is moving into the picture. 24hr trends on ensembles seem to suggest so. For this to become reality, would need to see grace continue to struggle into tomorrow. In either case, the earlier runs with a strengthening storm managing to avoid at least hispaniola/cuba to the north seem a bit less likely today and models have been correcting south as a result.
