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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Do we need threads for every birdfart swirl out in the middle of the atlantic?
  2. hlcater
    It did in grand isle. Water topped Humphress's cam and it was 14ft ASL.
  3. hlcater
    god what a chad
  4. hlcater
    Pressures havent risen so far.
  5. hlcater
    No one will ever top the Mexico Beach cam.
  6. hlcater
    14 foot surge already is very respectable. IIRC surge shoots way up right as the eye passes. Still a bit out from that yet.
  7. hlcater
    How high is the cam above sea level? Not how high on the pole, but relative to sea level.
  8. hlcater
    Keep in mind the moat will collapse as soon as the storm starts to feel the effects of land interaction. EWRC came but not quick enough.
  9. hlcater
    Mesovorts present in the eyewall. We are losing pressure and fast.
  10. hlcater
    If this is the pace that is being set for the rest of the night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 940mb by 12z tomorrow.
  11. hlcater
    Jim Tang and Matt Coker will be there. As will Ryan Hearne/Ryan Darr.
  12. hlcater
    If we were doing ~3.5mb/hr earlier, pressure is probably in free fall now. Closed -70 ring, universally cooling CDO and multiple convective bursts on all sides of the eyewall.
  13. hlcater
    Starting to get an inner wind maximum indicative of greater core organization.
  14. hlcater
    Well okay, think of it this way, when there’s continuous play by play with “this is the best it’s looked!!!1!1!!1!!” chances are the storm isn’t struggling at all, but rather continuing to steadily intensify.
  15. hlcater
    I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?
  16. hlcater
    More important than the pressure I think is the configuration of the core windfield. It's still quite broad and an intense inner wind max hasn't really developed yet. It has some work to do yet, and my guess is that the intense eyewall and inner wind max develops once we get a few really good, intense convective bursts in the core.
  17. hlcater
    What do you think about peak intensity?
  18. hlcater
    Seeing some symmetry in convective bursts as well, at least relative to this morning. Tonight will be very interesting as it traverses the warmest part of the loop current at Dmax
  19. hlcater
    Nah its still intensifying except thunderstorms in the eyewall have shrouded the eye. It's deceptive.
  20. hlcater
    #1 #2 #3 #4 #5
  21. hlcater
    Saw 5 tornadoes. Will post pics tomorrow.
  22. hlcater
  23. hlcater
    Ida is moving at quite the clip to be fair. It probably only spends 3-4 hours over Cuba. Looks to miss Isla de Juventud to the east too.
  24. hlcater
    Today is looking like a must chase along the IA/MN border. Gonna do my best to be there but I cant leave IC any earlier than 1:30
  25. hlcater
    Thinking Ida is in the midst of an RI episode right now. Very intense convective burst overhead which corresponds to an intense curved inner band (formative eyewall?) on recon data. We'll have a hurricane before the sun sets tonight.
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