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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Snow is wrapping up. Looking close to 3”. Very respectable and more than I thought
  2. hlcater
    Interesting how snow totals have increased even though the track has trended south.
  3. hlcater
    GFS is a strung out mess.
  4. hlcater
    Would probably go with a WWA for north and eastern portions of the DVN CWA given potential for briefly heavy rates during the morning commute, along with the fact that this will be the first impactful snow event of the entire season. Though forecast soundings overwhelmingly support small flake size out this way, so I question how heavy rates will actually be. Let's rephrase that to "reduced visibility"
  5. hlcater
    It’s a widespread 8-10” on kuchera. Isolated 12” in S IA
  6. hlcater
    Looks like a 1-3” system out this way on the morning guidance. After this December, even that is welcome.
  7. hlcater
    There's quite a lot of cold air/higher pressures to the north of the system in Canada pressing down. Think that suppresses the system at least some. The EC depiction from earlier today seemed like the most likely outcome to me.
  8. hlcater
    expecting the track to end up flatter than that in reality.
  9. hlcater
    It doesn’t on pivotal but has an evolution that would yield a storm in the time frame of other models
  10. hlcater
    UKMET
  11. hlcater
    Oh hell yes
  12. hlcater
    grinch storm also implies that there is actually snow on the ground prior which is a major lol in 2021
  13. hlcater
    Booking the WAD --> CAD transition
  14. hlcater
    some sort of fire in muscatine.
  15. hlcater
    would estimate winds of 60-65 out my window.
  16. hlcater
    we're never going to see another EF5 rating ever again.
  17. hlcater
    I bet you did
  18. hlcater
    I'd be quite surprised if they stick with 190.
  19. hlcater
    Our first 0.0" December likely on the table.
  20. hlcater
    Yea this is becoming a slam dunk tornado outbreak. You won't need supercells for tornadoes today. A QLCS will produce them just fine. If supercells become preferred in the area with the best shear vectors, I could see a 15H being necessary. The moisture overperformed even more than I expected. Looking at dews of 62-63 in the target area when as soon as yesterday, models had 57-58.
  21. hlcater
    Wind driven moderate with a 10% tor. Did not expect that.
  22. hlcater
    This setup has almost everything going for it except MLCAPE.
  23. hlcater
    lol what the hell
  24. hlcater
    The NAMs are essentially what you're looking for thermodynamically if you want a localized outbreak tomorrow. 1000 MLCAPE and hodographs taken from every other model not the NAM would suggest perhaps a strong tornado would be possible if you can get a sustained supercell.
  25. hlcater
    needs to be an enhanced risk for wind if you ask me. Right now, 5/30/0 probs seem reasonable. Could see this going to a 10 if we're looking at 1000 MLCAPE by tomorrow morning.
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