hlcater

It is snowing here currently. DAB+ so far. Should be just on the right side of the cut off? Time will tell. Flake size is very small at my location.

Now this, this would be quite something. My apt in IC gets 10" while my house in CR (where I am now) gets nothing.

I was joking

idk about yall but im all in on the SREF

18z euro

This thing is falling apart hard on HRRR/RAP for what that's worth.

GEFS really dried up.

The 18z GFS/RGEM are in and the NAM stands alone. 4" call here looking money.

Respectfully, tossing a model simply because it’s too far north isn’t really worthwhile. I agree that it probably is, but the issue arises when you’ve made what is essentially the same post 15 times in the same thread without providing any reasoning as to why other than “too far north”. For example, you could make the argument that dry NEly flow eats away at low/mid level RH and prevents precip from spreading as far north as some models think it will. This is certainly the case for the models showing heavy snow to the hwy 20 corridor and may well be the case for Cedar Rapids as well, though seems unlikely from preventing us from seeing at least 4.”

HRRR coming south again. CR will be left out of the good snow this run. Trend never fails.

HRRR comes in way north and at the top of the QPF envelope. Not really sure what to think. The HRRR has consistently been on the north/stronger end of potential track solutions, and even at this range, I don't think that is something that can be entirely discounted anymore given the consistency that has been seen. But then again, the tendency for higher res guidance to be north in longer ranges is omnipresent.

I’ve been hurt too much

I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical.

You can’t really ask for more than the 00z HRRR. Good for everyone really. Still thinking the HRRR is liable to be too far north.

I didnt even know there was a Korean model

the ICON sucks my guy

That won't happen. I think our clearest avenue to 6" is more QPF with the system in general (ie stronger/wider band of snowfall) rather than a track shift. There is a very strong consensus on a SE IA thru Chicago track.

Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so. Gonna go with a first call of 4"

NAM coming southeast

12z euro coming in ass

hoping for a 50 mile shift northward. Though this seems unlikely with the way things seem to be evolving

Losing confidence in the weekend storm for my area. A whiff south seems most likely.

18z GFS and still snowing.

DVN is bullish

This would be fascinating. General consensus of potential for 2-4" on higher res guidance with a very narrow band of snow traversing the region tomorrow evening.