hlcater

Yea this thing is in free fall again…

Nope still straight as an arrow en route

To this note I really think the only big thing that will limit Milton *is* shallow shelf waters as it passes near/south of scorpion reef.

Keep in mind that core dynamics during RI and the atmospheric environment (ie atmospheric temps aloft) are also contributors to MPI, not just OHC.

That look combined with NOAA43's radar scans earlier and 11nmi RMW.... ooof. Expecting substantial strengthening tonight. Could wake up to a major.

This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots.

Was thinking it's either attenuation or subsidence caused by strong eyewall convection that caused the opening. Could even be both. In any case IR continues to improve on a rapid pace. Should have recon data within the next 30 min.

Numerous mesovorts with a pentagonal eyewall on Tampa bay radar now. In the past these pentagonal eyes have been harbingers of RI. May be something to watch for as we close in on landfall

I don’t mean to rain on your parade but posting satellite and radar gifs every 15 min is unnecessary and clogs the thread seeing as we all have access to it.

Definitely legit too. Look at the temp spike/Td drop associated with it

Recon just got the first fix of the evening. 990.5 extrap

Beast emerging in the south china sea

Starting to wonder if this starts building an inner core sooner rather than later. The surface circulation is already well defined and appears to be becoming stacked under the sprawling mid-level circulation. This process seems to be complicated only by dry entrainment off of Cuba’s higher terrain, with deep convection widespread in all 4 quadrants otherwise. I’m not seeing much reason why a quicker pace of intensification shouldn’t ensue once that gets mixed out, especially if convection continues to develop over the center.

Slow to the punch on this one but it took me awhile to get all these put together since I still really dont know what I'm doing. All timer at these latitudes for sure.