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BGM Blizzard

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  1. BGM Blizzard
    850s...
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Fwiw... here the 24 hour precip and kuchera for the Monday appetizer before main event precip starts moving into the western southern tier...
  3. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah does seem a bit high with the ratios. And given the forward speed of the system, I'm thinking 18" is probably the ceiling for the jackpot.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    Some 18z individual frames...
  5. BGM Blizzard
    More 18z... 10:1 for mon-tues only... Pre-monday Kuchera... Post-storm Kuchera...
  6. BGM Blizzard
    12z precip vs 18z precip... 18z 12z
  7. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro SLP track looks about same as 12z but wetter/more expansive precip shield...
  8. BGM Blizzard
    Funny how they have all of Broome and most of Delaware counties in the 8-12 range but they left them out of the 8-12 watch statement for the CNY zones.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Delta probably tuning up the snowblower!
  10. BGM Blizzard
  11. BGM Blizzard
    18z run ends with a juiced appetizer on Monday...
  12. BGM Blizzard
    I'm taking a first crack at snow amounts after 0z runs tonight. Then a final tweak if necessary after 0z runs tomorrow night.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    I suppose. But I think icing will be issue primarily confined to PA zones. If we mix in the southern tier it's likely just sleet.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    BGM also issuing a WSW for Eastern southern tier and catskills though 5-10 is only a 7.5" average and doesn't meet the 9" avg/24 hour criteria. Definitely pretty marginal.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Long duration WSW from BGM...
  16. BGM Blizzard
    Long duration WSW from BGM...
  17. BGM Blizzard
    Albany hoisting WSW for Capital District north. Definitely a bit balsy on the southern extent at this juncture I'd say, though an eventual WWA is atleast a near lock. Edit: eastern Catskills also issued a WSW
  18. BGM Blizzard
    That update is only up thru Sunday night.
  19. BGM Blizzard
    My BGM prediction fwiw: Long duration WSW along the BUF border from central southern tier northeast thru finger lakes to Oneida County. Eastern southern tier and catskills left out for now due to mixing uncertainty and lack of sufficient overrunning precip on Monday to justify earlier start time/longer duration criteria.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    BUF hoisting long duration WSW for entire cwa as expected...
  21. BGM Blizzard
    12z EPS for Thur-Fri storm... More precip across the board vs. 0z Running 10:1 total member spread...
  22. BGM Blizzard
    12z EPS for Mon-Tues... Little bit less precip vs 0z but overall very consistent... Running 10:1 total member spread...
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Precip 10:1 Kuchera
  24. BGM Blizzard
    12z Euro total 5 day precip and 10:1 for Mon-Fri storms only...
  25. BGM Blizzard
    2.4 of the Kuchera running total is pre-monday but yeah still a super high ratio.
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