BGM Blizzard

Yeah all the meso models show us flipping within first hour so I'll be pleasantly surprised if it stays all snow longer than that. We received just under an inch earlier today so only need another coating to reach the 1" mark and atleast verify my 1-4" range. But don't think we will reach my 3" spot forecast for BGM from last night.

Will see what happens here. Temp is 25.

Weird. Not sure why it's not updating.

Ha... I am definitely one of those that has a clear pavement policy so I have to clear it before any cars come or go to keep my OCD in check. Definitely not looking forward to clearing the 2 inches of glacier crust that we are about to get here. Storms like these make me wish I had a plow blade instead of a snowblower attachment for my John Deere.

What's the strategy for snowblowing? Wait for it all to fall? When was the last snowfall that you used it?

The northwestern sections of Yates to northern Oneida counties... basically left of a line from Penn Yan to Boonville still have a fighting chance to get 6-8 and salvage the WSW... but as for the rest of that map...

Only thing left to do now is exhume the Cras model...

No... no he is not. I mean what could go wrong?

Just saw that. Quite comical. I vote@SyracuseStorm calls up the BGM office and asks them what models they are looking at...

Hey... atleast the Thur-Fri storm still looks rock solid for everyone on the 12z Euro. Who wants to take the bait...??? Matt?

Funny how they always assign it a 1/10 chance of happening. That map really should have become the "expected" map after 12z runs yesterday. Behind the curve again. I feel even more confident in my forecast now after today's 12z runs.

Most of BGMs accumulation forecast and warning/advisory map now has about 0 support with 99% precincts reporting. Theyll be overhauling it with the afternoon update. I'm guessing they leave a WSW in place from Yates to Oneida for now on the chance that northwestern sections of those counties still hit the low end 6-8" mark for WSW criteria, but everyone else S and E of that is knocked down to a WWA for sure and 1-6" tops.

Say what you want about the NAM but inside of 48 hours it's as reliable as any other model and perhaps moreso than most especially when it comes to sniffing out warm nose layers and NW shifts.

Except its not just the GFS, it's pretty much every model. They'll end up downgrading atleast Schuyler, Tompkins, and Cortland to WWA before this storm is over. Far northwestern corners of those counties might get 4-6", but I don't see any portions of them hitting the 7" criteria for WSW. And I don't think they get enough freezing rain to justify a "high impact" reasoning for a WSW either. Steuben County might get 7-8" in northwest corner of county but don't see the WSW verifying there either as majority of the county and it's population will get far less.

12z Hi Res Canadian 2.5k. Small reduction in precip vs. 0z lead to lower snow totals but thermals and estimated mix lines looked about the same.

That's gonna bust big across atleast south central NY. We'll be lucky to get more than an hour of straight snow later this evening before we flip to sleet and freezing rain across Southern tier.

Repost from last night. I guess I'm taking the under for most or atleast the southern half of the BGM cwa, but I like my chances. For those within or on the BUF cwa border, enjoy the 8+!

Yeah there definitely could be a wide range in totals from SE to NW across Onondaga/Madison counties. You are in the right slice in that Lysander/Baldwinsville area to stand the best chance at staying all snow.

Some frames off the 12z NAM for 850 0c line, thickness, and p-type. I will be very interested to see what you guys in the greater SYR area report tonight when this slug of heavy precip comes thru... 6z 9z

Thur-Fri snowfall maps... 10:1 Pre-storm Kuchera Post-storm Kuchera

Thur-Fri storm precip... 0z 12z

Late week storm looks generally the same as 12z for track and evolution but a bit more precip...

Accumulation maps...

Overall track and evolution pretty identical to 18z run, but less precip in CNY from dry slotting... 0z precip 18z precip

Low reorganizes in NJ, dry slot coming thru CNY...