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BGM Blizzard

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Everything posted by BGM Blizzard

  1. BGM Blizzard
    Moderate snow here still. Picked up 2.2 overnight to go with the .5 from yesterday, so 2.7 total for my 26 hour WWA to this point.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    BGM brings the 6-8 into Cortland and Madison now but doesn't issue anything still. Meanwhile Seneca is no longer in the heavy snow and keeps their WSW.
  3. BGM Blizzard
    Based on 18/0z runs, Cortland and Madison should get some sort of flag. Possibly Chenango and Tompkins as well.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    0z Euro doesn't have quite as pronounced band as it did on 18z and looks a tick south vs 18z. The 1 hour panels also show it being less than 24 hours of activity.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    Light but steady here. Looks like half an inch maybe just eyeballing. Edit: moderate snow now. Nice flake structure.
  6. BGM Blizzard
    0z RGEM, GFS, and GFS v16 look about same as 18z for band placement. NAM 3k 1 hour panels had a few different streamers that seemed to consolidate into a stronger band from Wayne to Cortland county, which also shows up well on the precip map. Since it's only a 60 hour run and about 30-36 hour period of snow, the map is a little more messy since it goes from H12-60. RGEM GFS GFS v16 NAM 3k
  7. BGM Blizzard
    How could I forget...
  8. BGM Blizzard
    Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah especially considering they been handing them out like candy lately for underwhelming events.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah GFS v16 seems to be hitting that terrain enhancement around Cazenovia. Madison County looks prime for a WSW or LESW with next update.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Looks like the band might have some nice inland extension. Cortland, Chenango, and Madison counties will probably get atleast an advisory.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    18z NAM 3k
  14. BGM Blizzard
  15. BGM Blizzard
  16. BGM Blizzard
    12z National Blend of Models (NBM 2.5km). Only goes out to 36 hours.
  17. BGM Blizzard
    Agreed. You're right it doesn't look good right now, BUT... if the models are correct, the best snow comes between 1am-10am Friday for our area. Most of the models seem to develop a decent band during this time frame but disagree on where it sets up. General consensus seems to favor Poconos to Catskills so you're in good shape. If the Euro and some other models are correct, a bigger chunk of CNY might get in on the action. Some frames off 6z Euro...
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Is it any coincidence that BGMs comparing of snowfall amounts match the Kuchera maps?
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Looks similar to the 0z GFS overall in snowfall axis anyway... Thru 18z Friday Thru 0z Sunday
  20. BGM Blizzard
    The 18z and 0z Euro made consecutive NW shifts in the main axis of precip fwiw. Kuchera crack... Thru 18z Friday compare... 0z 12z Thru 0z Sunday compare... 0z 12z
  21. BGM Blizzard
    I blame Wentz from Philly for spreading some bad I-95 juju where it wasn't welcome!
  22. BGM Blizzard
    Sorry but this is just silly. Someone please tell me how 2-5 over a 31 hour period meets WWA criteria in middle of February in upstate NY. Maybe in North Carolina but not here. Pretty sure this has more to do with trying to save face and avoid the humiliating cancellation of a premature WSW...
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Remember that well. My one and only winter spent in Oswego and was looking forward to experiencing some of the best winter conditions Lake Ontario had to offer. Outside of one decent lake effect storm on a weekend that I wasn't there for, it was the winter that never happened. Summer weather and 70s by March was a nice consolation prize though.
  24. BGM Blizzard
    Euro still sucks. Not even worth posting a map unless a precip total of .1 to .2 thru Friday tickles your fancy. BGM is going to have to follow up with their epic forecast bust of last storm by cancelling the premature WSW for atleast the Southern Tier counties. What a joke.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    BGM recorded 1.7 over the past 2 days. Season total now 84.5 which surpasses the annual avg of 83. However, barring another March blockbuster like 2017, this week of disappointment has probably all but shut the door on any chance of making a run toward a Top 5 (=>117.6) or possibly even Top 10 (=>108.6) snowiest winter.
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