Jump to content

BGM Blizzard

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,676

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by BGM Blizzard

  1. BGM Blizzard
    33 here and precip hasn't even started.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Best case scenario for here is 15 mins of snow, an hour of mix, a few sprinkles and then a dry slot. If we're lucky we'll increase our YTD snowfall by 10-14%.
  3. BGM Blizzard
    As shitty as the 0z HRRR and NAM look, the odds of atleast an inch in Pittsford still look good. This storm's not dead yet folks... not by a long shot!
  4. BGM Blizzard
    Lol yeah no chance. Models always too far south with the warm air intrusion. Never fails.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    Wwa for the south for light icing. Wwa in the northeast for hitting snowfall criteria. Must be expecting no ice and insufficient snowfall for wwa along the Plain.
  6. BGM Blizzard
    @Ericjcrash
  7. BGM Blizzard
  8. BGM Blizzard
    O hell yeah! Still have wet dreams from that band just parking itself overhead...
  9. BGM Blizzard
    They heard Dave was only asking for an inch...
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Wherever it does snow (outside maybe the ADK, far northern NY), you can expect less than 10:1 ratio with the high thickness values. Add in the warm/wet ground in most places, I'd cut the 10:1 numbers in half atleast... esp in lower elevations. And thats assuming a non-NAM like solution.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    While it is the long range NAM, it's usually pretty good inside 36-48 when it comes to estimating how far north warm layers and resulting mix lines will advance in these setups IMO.
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah don't take the bait. Time and time again we get lured by the models with these west of the mtn tracking systems only to end up disappointed as a result of the wave tracking too far nw and shoving warm air up our arse. For anyone along/west of 81 or along/south of 90, I wouldn't expect more than an inch of slop.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    That's a good place to be. I could see that area getting a decent snowfall this weekend.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah that looks much more realistic than these OP snowfall outputs. The pre-storm airmass is stale/warm and with no strong HP to the north and a LP wave (albeit weak) riding up west of the mtns into PA, I don't see snow being a dominant precip hardly anywhere, and those that start as snow probably switch to taint and/or rain pretty quick outside of maybe the North Country and parts of E NY.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Caving to the Euro again. Next.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah you're in the best place of any of us for a solution like the Euro. A wave tracking west of the apps up into western PA is gonna result in sloppy mix for most everyone here. We need that wave to stay south and redevelop off the coast earlier for anyone outside the North Country and E NY to get any decent snow. Be nice if that HP was centered in Quebec instead of north central Ontario.
  17. BGM Blizzard
    I posted that last night. North Tonawanda looks to be south of where that radar echo was originating though. And I don't think an average size residential home would cause enough smoke to show up on radar.
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Based on this press release, that was a minor fire confined to a chimney. Would have needed a much larger fire to generate that much smoke.
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah that first storm for next weekend has a high potential of being a hybrid cutter IMO. I foresee it being a slop storm for many esp the further south you go. Maybe some get a decent thump snow before a warm nose brings the taint. We'll see what happens.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    I believe they only record and report thunderstorm-related wind reports. Non-tstorm wind damage only gets recorded and reported by the local NWS offices.
  21. BGM Blizzard
    There is an active house fire in North Tonawanda right now, but that would appear to be south of that radar echo and it usually takes a commercial size building to generate enough smoke to show up on radar.
  22. BGM Blizzard
    BGM upgraded the central southern tier to mohawk valley to HWW now for gusts to 60...
  23. BGM Blizzard
  24. BGM Blizzard
    NWS office in Padukah KY was knocked offline. Their backup NWS Springfield MO has assumed all warning issuance now...
  25. BGM Blizzard
    Another possible MCI in Southern Illinois from Amazon warehouse being destroyed. What an awful night in the mid Mississippi valley. This long track wedge heading thru western KY just leveled Mayfield...
×
×
  • Create New...