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BGM Blizzard

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  1. BGM Blizzard
    Posted these off the Euro weeklies yesterday.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Here another 12z run for tonight. Not familiar with the National Blend of Models (NBM) and only has 10:1 available.
  3. BGM Blizzard
    Yep take whatever we can get tonight. Here 12z runs of the NAM 3k, Rgem, and HRRR. Kuchera is generally estimating ratios in the range of 7-8:1 which seems reasonable given the marginal temps/thickness.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    If anyone was wondering the Euro Ens took a dump as well at 0z. Not much to hang hat on other than there still time for a miracle to happen. A lot of the mean snowfall is from tonight's event too, so by 12z tomorrow it'll probably look way worse lol. Chicago looks like a good place to be for the next 7 days.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    UK is awful too. One can safely assume that wave would get shunted OTS off the SEUS with that look.
  6. BGM Blizzard
    Canadian is a warm cutter followed by a whiff. Not seeing much incentive to stay up for the Euro lol.
  7. BGM Blizzard
    The pieces of energy for the weekend storm(s) are currently located invof eastern Russia and the western Alaskan shore. Not sure what the data sampling is like up in those parts but I'm guessing not very good? Might be a few days before they get sufficiently sampled closer to the Lower 48.
  8. BGM Blizzard
    0z GFS moved a bit north as well for tomorrow's event. Might be a Southern Tier special. Cautiously optimistic.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Had that earlier here with some of the convective elements passing through, no snow though. Very impressive.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Hell yeah. Temps look a bit marginal down this way but hoping we can squeeze out 2-3" of pasty snow so I can do some plowing with the Deere again on Wednesday morning. 0z 3k and 12k NAM
  11. BGM Blizzard
    WWA definitely warranted for this evening. Temp holding at 31 and we just had thunder/lightning with sleet/freezing rain mix. Paved surfaces are glazed over.
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Euro weeklies offer some hope to the relentless SE ridge. Pretty near spot on match to this NOAA forecast.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    Fwiw (and it ain't much), the 18z GEFS were significantly snowier than the 12z run of GEFS and EPS. Looks like a lot of feast or famine solutions. Here's the mean and member snowfall thru H198 (Tuesday evening)
  14. BGM Blizzard
    A slight uptick in the mean snowfall from 0z, but still lots of duds in the spread.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Right, stick with the Ens and the mean. The Op runs including the Euro are all over the place.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    It was a flizzard fest for 30 minutes here and briefly coated the ground and was just starting to stick to the pavement before it shut off. What stuck to the grass is mostly melted now. I think ROC 1" lead is safe for another day.
  17. BGM Blizzard
    Well in fairness, even the Euro is struggling mightily. The 0z run sent the first storm south of NYS while all the rest of the models continued to show a cutter, and now 12z Euro is back to the general idea of the first storm cutting.
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah that's the worst case scenario but entirely possible. That first cutter could really mess things up. But if accurately depicted, the GFS was still pretty close to producing a phased bomb for the 2nd storm. Going to take a few days to see how that energy in the SW unfolds.
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Same here. Occasional flurry is all so far. Meanwhile the temp has risen from 27 to 31 now. Likely going to be a non-event down here.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    0z Euro Ens Mean snowfall and total snowfall still have a lot of duds in the population.
  21. BGM Blizzard
    It delayed the kick out of the 1st storm such that it managed to track underneath us to deliver that outcome. The 2nd storm consequently went OTS off the SEUS. The other models still like the initial storm as a GL cutter followed by a 2nd storm going somewhere up the east coast. As BW said, good luck to the Mets this week for trying to sort this mess out.
  22. BGM Blizzard
    0z UK at 144. Its faster and more amped than the 12z Euro at the same timeframe. Trough almost going neutral, but too far out to really try and extrapolate the run though.
  23. BGM Blizzard
    2nd storm doesn't really materialize in time on the 0z CMC. Mostly a whiff to the east. Lots of potential though. Doesn't seem like it would take much to get a highly amped/phased solution on the east coast.
  24. BGM Blizzard
    Even though it's far fetched fantasy output, a 949mb mslp on the eastern seaboard as modeled by CMC and GFS would probably set some records (atleast for this time of year outside hurricane season). By Dvorak estimates, a 949mb mslp in the Atlantic basin would typically translate to near Cat 4 hurricane intensity. Be helluva storm to experience in the winter time.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    0z GFS similar to the 12z Canadian with the 2nd wave. Deepens to sub 950mb in Northern New England. Glancing blow of snow to eastern half of NYS on the way through.
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