BGM Blizzard

EPS shifted a little east again from 12z.

Probably lose atleast half as virga lol

18z only ended marginally better than 12z. Here the final 6 hour surface frame and a 12 hour precip compare between 12z and 18z thru H90... 18z precip 12z precip

18z Euro has the shortwave a little more north so far thru h75. Hopefully that translates to a better solution downstream.

Down to 12° here. Already the coldest night of the winter season here so far.

18z GEFS ticked W, but still a lot of work to do for anything decent.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

BGM

18z NAM is pathetic and a would-be dusting at best most likely. Hopefully the models are just lost due to the energy not being onshore yet.

EPS is noticeably E but not horrible when compared to the other 12z runs. Still time.

You're right, but that's a substantial shift SE by at least 100-200 miles in mslp track (Northern WV on 0z, Southern VA on 12z). Barely scrapes BGM to ALB. Hopefully the EPS won't shit the bed too badly. Either way there is still plenty of time for it to shift back W.

Good news is the storm doesn't even start to come onshore until tomorrow evening so while not a great 12z run thus far, big swings in the models shouldn't be completely surprising at this range. There's still plenty of time for correction.

UK went way E as well. Looks close to the GFS. Not even worth posting a map.

12 GEFS. Literally 0-for-30 for even a decent hit.

12z GEFS actually shifted E a decent bit compared to 0z and esp 6z.

EPS still solid at 6z albeit not quite as wet as the 0z run. Goal posts also narrowed a bit esp on the western side.

EPS mean continues to look solid. Still lots of spread though.

Euro looks a tad nw of 12z, and definitely wetter. Big hit from NE PA to interior NE.

I guess that means tonight's Euro run will be the most important of our lives

Posted the wrong UK map from 0z last night. It shifted a bit NW from 12z.

I'd take some of that. Once in a while BGM can score a decent LES event when the flow is just right. Usually just nuisance advisory level, but sometimes a warning level event if there enough moisture and upstream connection and the flow catches the long axis of Cayuga Lake. November 2016 around Thanksgiving was one of the bigger LES events that I can remember around here, though I think that was more of a hybrid synoptic/lake effect event. BGM scored like 27" over a 2+ day period I believe. https://youtu.be/zMExFRU7nNM https://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastWinterNovember212016

GFS 72hr precip 18z Wed to 18z Sat for LES