BGM Blizzard
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Sure was. We had 39.6 in Mar 2017 and 36.3 in Mar 2018 here at BGM. Mar 2018 saved the 2017-18 winter from being a top 10 dud for snowfall here, and actually ended up slightly above avg. -
That was March 2017. Great storm. Remember it well. It put the winter of 2016-17 atop the all time for most snow at BGM (135.2) by a few inches.
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GEFS a little west of 18z but not much.
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Thinking generally the same. Like 4-8/6-10 of WAA thump for most places and then another 4-8/6-10 in the deformation zone which right now looks to favor Gen Valley, south shore, western finger lakes area... maybe as far west as Buf.
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18z eps track looks close to 12z. Nice deform signature for the south shore area.
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Last frame of 18z Euro
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Looking at the 6z Euro, the 2 pieces (blue circles) that dive in and phase in the southern plains to form the storm are on or near the coastline today and fully onshore by 0z tonight. The northern stream (blue x) that comes into the Great Lakes near game time is still well out into the Pacific and does not come onshore until about 21z Saturday.
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Yeah 0z EPS was like Lancaster to Albany, and 6z is PHL to Hartford vicinity.
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Last frame of 6z Euro. Closed 500mb low is in the western Carolinas this run vs TN/GA border on 0z.
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EPS is going to shift dramatically west of 12/18z again based on early frames. Just seems like they are playing catchup to the shifts of the Op runs. Ugh.
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Depressing run for sure. But still time. Hopefully the EPS are more favorable and onto something.
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Far W NY and Toronto would jackpot on that track. Most of us would thump and then mix/slot. Yuck.
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Definitely west of 12z so far. The shortwave is in beast mode this run. Hopefully it transfers east of the mtns before getting to Jamestown.
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S/w is a little SE of 12z in the southern plains at H63 but also a little stronger. Heights look lower in the east. Tpv further south. Stronger s/w might end up offsetting though.
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Fwiw... the 0z CMC ensembles are essentially a replica of their 12z run and have been much closer to their parent op than the other globals and their respective ensemble packages.
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GEFS snowfall spread
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BGM mentioned that possibility.
