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BGM Blizzard

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  1. BGM Blizzard
    Only goes out to 48 so not very useful for a while yet. Apparently it only has output for the northern US too lol.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah not much change from 18z. Little more expansive on the northern edge to the thruway vicinity. Solid hit for everyone still.
  3. BGM Blizzard
    Pivotal has maps anyway, looks similar to 18z but maybe not as dry on the northern side at first glance.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    Euro looked little more amped but appeared the cold press was also a little faster as well and possibly offset some, but maps aren't loading too well on WB so hard to tell. End result looked like a small shift nw but waiting to see the outputs.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    10:1 non-sleet and simulated radar at 12z Friday (still snowing)
  6. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah hard to tell what going on. Incoherent shifts between the models. Like Dave said, there going to be some wobbling back and forth and unfortunately even small shifts have huge implications for some or most of us. Hopefully this thing threads the needle and we all get 6+.
  7. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro 10:1, p-type, and last 4 runs of 10:1.
  8. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro is a bit SE of 12z.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Eh... we'll see. Could be. But I wouldn't give up any hope over some small shifts at 18z.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Half that... 25 miles. Could be the start of a trend or just noise. See what 0z runs do later.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah... might as well just go straight to warnings at that point lol. Do think there should be some sort of combination criteria established for Watch/Warning... like 50% of each threshold... to avoid these kinds of subjective differences from office to office. Unless the Gem/Rgem somehow score a coup, every model pretty much has over an inch of liquid in frozen form. Definitely better than 50/50 chance of a high impact winter event.
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Lol BGM added Delaware to the WSW and Albany did nothing this afternoon. This scenario is one that gets me with the whole Watch/Warning criteria. BGM goes the 'high impact' route for justification in Delaware with 4-6" and .25 ice which is a more than reasonable justification imo. In fact I'd argue 5 inches of wet snowfall on top of .25 of ice accretion together is probably a much higher impact to life and property than a straight up 8-10" of snow drawn out over 24 hours.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    Re: name change... You should go with George002 or George Jr. Either would be very appropriate.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    @winter_rules @Flying MXZ
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah you'll get one. I'm thinking as far south as eastern catskills of western Greene and then northeast to Rensselaer. BGM will probably add Delaware to match.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    Albany will probably extend WSW all the way south to Greene and Rensselaer counties this afternoon.
  17. BGM Blizzard
    I'd say 15 is probably out of reach even for the higher terrain and in an all snow scenario due to less than ideal ratios. But 10-12" might be doable if we don't lose much precip to mixing esp in higher elevations.
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. 6-10 of dense snow always better than a bunch of sleet and zr. Last 3 Euro runs at 10:1 and 12z precip type output
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Yep I noticed the same thing but wasn't sure how much difference at the surface it would make. Small but noticeable for those of us on the southern fringe.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    Getting into close enough range where the higher res/skilled Operationals are of more value than ensembles anyway.
  21. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah I fixed
  22. BGM Blizzard
    Not much change in Gefs other than cutting back on snowfall maxes a bit
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Here was the Rgem and Cmc precip type and 10:1 non-sleet for comparison to other models. Rgem Cmc
  24. BGM Blizzard
    UK abandoned its outlier status and at least came into the realm of possibilities this run. Looks good for entire forum and somewhat close to the GFS for snowfall amounts.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    GFS precip type and 10:1 non-sleet
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