dizzy9479

Could this emerge south of Cuba and pick up strength again?

Up to 30/70 at 8 PM. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

So sorry to hear this - sending thoughts and prayers your way.

140 it is: 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Exceptionally small flakes flying in Williamstown, NJ also. Hoping for 3 inches but that's probably overly optimistic

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... National Weather Service WSR-88D radar data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 215 PM CDT...1915 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

He is working the storm for WeatherNation - his Twitter notes that was why he's chasing, haha

Josh is in Port St. Joe - his twitter shows heavy rain but almost no wind at all coming in.

Admittedly a bit jealous. Being from southern New Jersey, we don't get this kind of weather often. I'll be in Gulfport for work next week at this time - a week too late, haha. Hoping you all experience minimal disruption and damage but get to see some nice gusts!

Just noticed that we have pingers here in Williamstown, NJ also

BWI reporting FZRA now......

-FZRA started here in Williamstown, NJ - central Gloucester county. 30.6 F

Flipped here in Williamstown, NJ about 30 minutes ago - coming down like crazy and roads starting to cover on the sides. 33.3 F

Any sleet at least in Turnersville, or all rain? All rain here in Williamstown

Looking at COD radar, it looks like the rain line is encroaching upon Wilmington and the PA/MD line -- a little worried about that.