ma blizzard
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Everything posted by ma blizzard
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5/18/2002 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/us0518.php
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convection and dealing with how the ULL behaves prob won’t be easy for the models to resolve .. def a convoluted setup.
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too bad there isn't a little more low lvl moisture, could have been a higher end squall event
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ORH 65 BOS 64 still more clouds than sun in metrowest unfortunately edit: sat looks good rest of the afternoon, lets go!
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back in metro west today, snow cover down to patches / grass in the sun torched areas and 3"-6" of concrete I can still walk on top of in the shadier spots
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@ORH_wxman @tamarack appreciate the detailed responses and info!
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after 2001, which years had the most snowpack going into April locally? 2007 and 2015 had pack into April but are there any other years up there? Too young to remember how ‘96 was before the April storms so could that be up there?
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ingredients aren’t really there for the true big dog eruptions (VEI 6/7) .. maybe they do a VEI6 like once every couple hundred years. anything larger prob has a return rate 10x that .. won’t have to worry about it going “boom” .. altho id love to see it happen. From a scientific perspective, would be very interesting to see the climatic impacts .. and some crazy weather.
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maybe 70-80 locally in the squalls? 60-70 is good place to start, can always adjust up
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its colder not too far off the ground and with good rates, maybe dynamic cooling gets you down to 33ish
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must be decent OES contribution under the radar beam, cause its ripping pretty good under 10 dbz echoes .. bordering on heaviest of the day and great snow growth
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through 36, I think GFS will better than 18z .. looks better IMO at 500 mb anyway
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hate to see it
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I don't doubt there is a spike after CAD mixes out, but some of the more meso guidance shows the low lvl cold hanging tough .. maybe even a weenie cold tuck for SE NH / NE MA tmrw midday?
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its never easy to accept you wasted a week tracking whether it will ultimately be 34 and rain or 37 and rain lol what a dumpster fire performance from the models over the last couple days.
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UKMET looks quite amped and warm ..
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GFS has a decent amount of QPF on Monday .. ~.25" - .4" region wide. Could get interesting for those who are looking for ice .. shallow warm layer but not the deepest / coldest layer beneath. Might have to take the ice threat more seriously if we keep trending for bigger impact on Monday. Could be a zone that has a solid glazing going into Monday night and sees a decent chunk of QPF fall as ZR from round 2. CMC looks like ~1/3" QPF on Monday
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hey man I would love nothing more than to see a big ice / mixed QPF event to seal in this pack, but the return rate is pretty rare.
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you haven't come close to warning criteria ice since nov 2002 what are you talking about
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KBOS def runs a couple degrees too cold as of late
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rev and taunton blizz ensemble approach might be the best way to go going forward
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gotta love how it spits out 1"+ qpf in 6 hours
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we lock in the 3km NAM?
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should have gone back to metro west for this one .. ive never seen it rip this hard and have maybe like 4-5 to show for it
