PowellVolz

The precipitation in southern MTn is starting to regenerate some. The dry slot at my house has filled back in

Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible.

This is what I anticipate happens when the backside rotates through. My only issue is it might (looking at radar trends) scoot just NW of the valley.

Or when Tennessee is down 40 to Florida in the first half and I go to the garage to work on my golf swing. lol…

Oof

I still believe when the backside rotates through, it’s gonna squeeze everything out as the 850’s crash. I’m getting dry slotted on radar but I’ve got moderate snow still falling.

Are you sleet/FRZ yet @Reb?

I’m thinking the backside comma head should start slowing down the R/S line moving into Nashville. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when those two meet. Two different air masses and with shifts coming together. That could create some serious lift.

I’m pretty sure they are saying 1”-4” more on top. Everyone has had at least an inch or so.

I was literally about to say whoever ends up just north of the stall point is gonna be getting up to 2” per Hr rates.

Further north it travels the more resistants it meets. I don’t think it makes it north of 40 but it’s already further north than expected

Wait… i thought you were in Oak Ridge or something?

Some good looking returns headed up the valley

I feel like I’m always giving MRX a hard time but is it me or does it seem like their storm updates are written several hours before they actually post them? Their last update at 9:30am was talking like the snow had just started in the deep southern valley when it was already snowing in Knoxville.

Looking at some temps along the foothills…. 27° at 5k feet, 22° at 3500° (Ober Gatlinburg) and 24° in Townsend. Really pulling for our most eastern valley guys after the January 24’ shaft job y’all got. However IMO… the radar trends seem to be bringing more moisture along the edge of the mountains.

New guy didn’t see the ops thread.

Really coming down now.

Looks like a deform band has set up over Memphis/west Tennessee. Hopefully the comma head continues to track east.

Maybe I read this wrong. Seeing twitter say 9pm tonight now.

Nashville NWS just extended their WSW till 6am Saturday

Secondly warm front type feature. Just south of that is probably where the mixing starts. Hopefully that boundary stays south of Chattanooga.

I believe what we are seeing is the moisture on the NE side outrun its dynamics. While I’m not confident, as the system moves closer, the better dynamics along with some divergence aloft will create more lift. However some mods tried to show a dry slot over the plateau.

Been watching the temps in the mountains/foothills… I think Del Rio is above 3k feet and the WAA had started this morning but it looks like they are wet bulbing pretty good now. Down almost 8 degrees since 7am.

Can someone explain CSI for me? Literally never heard of that.