PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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RGEM just about doubled around Knoxville .
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Wet as in rain or high precipitation amounts? .
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For whatever reason it has been nice to knox co the last several runs .
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The WRF mods have gotten better for the valley also. .
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It’s interesting how many mods are showing that heavier strip of snow from Knox Co into Blount Co. .
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MRX’s last disco before the Christmas Eve event they literally said they would lean on the SREF for their accumulation forecast when it was the obvious rogue model. They came back the next day with something even more ridiculous. They said the official amount at TYS was 2” even though they said there was at least 3-4” on the ground but some had melted off. .
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Especially north of 40. Euro is the third mod today laying down 4-6” in my area. .
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One thing we’ve always agreed on though, is that you don’t want to be the bullseye 5-10 days out. Hopefully this doesn’t pan out for anyone but it’s not a good look at this point. . -
This is shaping up to be very similar to the last couple of February’s except it’s winter precip falling. .
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Something I was thinking about.... with the overcast sky and temps in the valley running behind schedule, I’m wondering if the mods are picking up on surface temps getting trapped in the valley and staying below what the mods were saying? .
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It’s very overcast in N Knoxville and the temp is 36. Hasn’t moved in two hours. The valley trapping cold air could be big. .
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MRX morning update says to delay the onset of precipitation. More of this that falls overnight the better. .
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Looks like the Canadian is backing the warm nose down the valley a little also. .
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I-40. What a shocker .
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The HRW’s were all better for the valley also, especially north of 40 .
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3k was better for the valley. Actually had me on the 5” line in N Knox Co .
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LOL at that dollop on Knox Co. that ain’t happening. .
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Still surprised they they put 1-3” in the valley with all the uncertainty .
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I think the euro was right around d7 I believe .
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Kidding about what? I must have missed something. LOL .
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Just to add on this.... if there is an boundary laying across the valley it should help limit downsloping some. .
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MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side. .
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I’d bookmark that photo just for reference .
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My only issue is both of the Euro’s freak outs are not that far apart. So it makes it even harder to trust it overall. .
