PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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The warm nose intrusion up the valley is starting to show it’s identity IMO. I think as the system moves east it will squeeze the warm air aloft up against the mountains. You can already see this on the northern edge moving to the east. Hopefully this is the trend and I didn’t waste 2 minutes writing this. .
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Also noticing the “backside” shield SW of Nashville is starting to pivot SE and filling in. Down to 32 at my house and the snow seems to be falling harder than radar is showing. Maybe CAA is working in? .
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You might be about to go back to snow .
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RadarScope is showing the CC moving out of W Knox Co staying south of 40 headed east. .
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Last couple frames of the CC show the melting starting to retreat a little. .
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Interesting. My buddy lives on the Knox/Loudon line and he just sent me a pic of it snowing. It’s pouring at my house .
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Headed up the valley .
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That’s not good for most of us .
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All that precip in the southern valley is starting to turn more north I believe. If it doesn’t dry up I might do ok. .
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I’m right at the bottom of the MCD line .
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South of 40 is going to get dry slotted. I might end up right on the southern edge of the better moisture .
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Wow… yeah it’s pouring now in Halls .
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All snow in Halls. .
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Precip just hits a wall in W Knox Co .
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I’m 34-35 now but have been there for an hour .
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 1046 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .UPDATE... MORNING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Update this morning to try and refine PoPs/Temps/Wx grids to reflect current observations. Based on reports the heavier reflectivities near Marion and Sequatchie county are producing snowflakes or a wintry mix that is making it to the ground. This heavier precipitation is really helping to saturate the column, Most of the reports are coming in from the higher elevations, and CC product indicates that the "melting layer" is around 2,000-3,000 feet above the surface. With these heavier reflectivities the wintry precipitation is making it to the surface even with this freezing level. Expect this trend to continue as the band of heavier precipitation continues to move northeastward. Some of the high resolution model guidance continues the band of heaviest precipitation up the Cumberland Plateau, and based on observations this looks like it's panning out so far .
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Not this big of a problem but again, we don’t know what they are above the valley .
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No way of knowing what the temps are above Knoxville but at 5k ft in the mountains it’s 45 degrees. That’s a cold rain at that temps .
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Unbelievable…. It’s 45° at New Found Gap but 29 in Gatlinburg .
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Surface temps are not the problem. 850’s are 3-4°c .
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Ober is at 32 and reporting light snow but yes, 850’s are going to screw the eastern valley/foothills. I’m looking at the American flag on top of the tallest building in Knoxville and winds are out of the NNE. Temp is 32-33 in N Knox Co
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Anyway to go back and look at the 850’s in Nashville like 4 hours ago? I mean… it seems to me 850’s would go up a bit in front of a system and crash as the core gets closer. .
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Surface temps isn’t the problem. It’s 850’s .
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Temp is 31 .
