PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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We have a surface low that tracking along the coast of the GOM. We also have an 850mb low pressure tracking on or just south or the southern Tennessee state line. The 850 low pressure is basically our weather maker. If we can get it about 50 miles further south it would really open up Tennessee. .
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I don’t think they are that far apart and all of them has trended south some the last 24 .
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8:1? .
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This is what I thought…. But i start to wonder what else the mods have missed on initiation? .
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540 up in SE Kentucky .
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How much of that is sleet, freezing rain in our area? .
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Well… I know we are down to only a couple of options that are on our side but I will roll the dice with the Euro most of the time. .
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You know we are struggling when we are posting the UK. It’s pretty though .
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Webb’s last tweet is the one that bothers me. If what he thinks is true then we have a problem. .
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GFS is basically on its own and I don’t think anyone is really considering it an option right now. It didn’t handle the path of the last storm well at all. Its track on the last storm for 3-4 days prior didn’t move and ended up wrong. Edit: I’ll say I’m not really considering it instead of saying “anyone”. .
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I think mods are going to have a hard time until the 50/50 low gets established. Probably why the GFS is acting like that uncle you only see once a year between thanksgiving and Christmas who gets drunk and starts talking to his dog that’s asleep. .
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Keeping the system to our SE for now is a good thing. .
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Man that was ugly .
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That’s pretty tight cluster for this far out. I like that a lot. .
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Oh I totally get your point and agree .
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Looks like an I-40 special on PW .
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I only look at it for validation these days. .
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I good with this though. I would much rather take my chances of being to far NW at this juncture. Been burned too many times when we are in the bullseye in that 4-8 day window. .
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I’m thinking the UK has a history of NW precipitation expansion issues? Or am I getting that confused with another mod? .
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Unless we get the perfect ULL track with cold air in place, the valley will always be battling the warm nose. .
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We have to assume this will trend back at some point but I’m wondering if there’s enough blocking to keep this from coming back NW in the 11th hour? .
