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PowellVolz

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Everything posted by PowellVolz

  1. PowellVolz
    I went back and looked again. Yeah the moisture doesn’t reflect the simulation IMO. Definitely should be more .
  2. PowellVolz
    QPF is less on the Canadian so this isn’t a more rain less snow unless I’m looking at it wrong. .
  3. PowellVolz
    I remember Valentines Day(ish) in the early to mid 80’s we had a similar ULL that busted on the snow side. The cutoff was I-40 in Knoxville. I remember this because we were stuck at school until late in the afternoon towards dark. Started raining but quickly changed to snow north of 40. My dad had a 1980 full size Bronco and we started taking kids home from school (yeah you could do that back then). I can’t remember how much we ended up with but it had to been 5+ inches in just a few hours. Similar to the Huntsville bowling ball several years ago. .
  4. PowellVolz
    Dynamic cooling. I would expect mods to struggle handling low level dynamics under 2500’. For the valley all we need is low 40’s and good rates. As long as we are within the cold core, the temp dropping 5-7 degrees is nothing. Seen it drop close to 10 degrees before. .
  5. PowellVolz
    Not saying it’s impossible but it’s impossible this continues SE. I would bet a lot of money this starts working it’s way back NW in the morning. In my opinion ULL’s tend to end up a little NW of the mods. .
  6. PowellVolz
    Just need some lightning tomorrow morning .
  7. PowellVolz
    I’ve got a few plants/shrubs I’m worried about. Most of my shrubs go dormant but my Otto Lukyen’s and Big Blue Liriope do not look good at all. The rest of my evergreens look fine. Fescue is really coming in now. .
  8. PowellVolz
    @Carvers Gap might be right about 2013. I can’t remember exactly what year but it was definitely before the 2013/14 winter because thats when I bought my Jeep and I didn’t have it for this event. Anyway…. I remember we were kinda expecting a rain to snow but no one knew how much. It changed over around 12:30-1 PM and it snowed about 4-5” in 2 hours right over Knoxville. They let us go home at 3pm from work. Normally a 30min drive took me 3 1/2 hours. The roads in Knoxville was a compacted slop but pretty slick. When I got to Black Oak Ridge between Ft City and Halls, the slop had frozen and even 4x4’s where struggling. This other event didn’t really do much in the valley but I remember another ULL got the mountains, NC and SC pretty good. The reason I remember it is because it hit in later October, first of November when Tennessee was playing at South Carolina. Josh Dobbs was a sophomore I believe. The mountains did really well but even Columbia SC picked up 3-5” that Saturday. @Carvers Gap probably remembers the year. .
  9. PowellVolz
    I always apply mine the 2nd week of February. Poa annua is already showing up, day lilies have sprigs and Forsythia are starting to pop. I’m getting my pre down before the weekend .
  10. PowellVolz
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  11. PowellVolz
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  12. PowellVolz
    Can CC pick up rain changing into sleet? .
  13. PowellVolz
    I can’t remember where you’re at. .
  14. PowellVolz
    Brite banding over Knoxville. Rain drops are about the size of quarters with some sleet mixing in. .
  15. PowellVolz
    Here’s a couple of pictures that show what a difference a couple of degrees makes. These two pictures taken minutes apart. The top one was 29 degrees in South Memphis, the bottom picture was in North Memphis at 26 degrees. .
  16. PowellVolz
    We will be disappointed regardless but we kinda knew or had a good idea that winter could be a dud. The lack of opportunities is kinda surprising to me though. To this point we really haven’t been all that close to sniffing on one. We swing and miss on some around here but we haven’t really seen a pitch yet. .
  17. PowellVolz
    It feels like the temp in Knoxville has really fell off the past hour or so. .
  18. PowellVolz
    .
  19. PowellVolz
    FYI… TWC app now has added “light Fz rain” into my GPS forecast for Wednesday morning with a low of 32°. They have also changed to a 50% chance of ZR for Friday morning with a low of 28. None of this was there when I checked it this morning. .
  20. PowellVolz
    A lot of times the tick to the North happens because there’s nothing to keep it from doing that. Here we have a situation where high pressure behind the front is actually trying to move everything SE. So IMO if we see a little jog, it will likely be more south than east. SER is strong so it will not move much. I could be totally wrong but that’s my opinion. .
  21. PowellVolz
    A buddy of mine who does boiler work for me lives in Del Rio. That upslope event a few weeks back, he picked up about 8”. He’s around 4k feet. .
  22. PowellVolz
    I completely forgot you were in Knoxville for a while. One day I’m going to retire to Wears Valley and buy a cabin up to at least 2k feet. Would love to get above the 2,500ft threshold though. .
  23. PowellVolz
    With temps around 30 degrees, I don’t think this will be a travel issue for the most part unless it’s mostly at night. Bridges might need to be watched. Power going out would be my only concern. .
  24. PowellVolz
    You are correct and I should probably narrow down my “ETn” reference to a mention of valley locations. You might not realize this and maybe I’m in the minority here but IMO if you are not in the valley, I consider those areas grouped in with “elevation” areas. For me, anyone NE of Morristown is part of elevated forecasts even if you’re under 2k feet. John is in a similar situation. I’m 30 min north of Knoxville and the difference between the two can be significant in the winter. When atmospheric conditions are normal, I’m 7 to 10 degrees colder that downtown Knoxville. The difference between my location and yours is as significant if not more than mine to Knoxville. So that’s why I consider you all part of elevated forecast. .
  25. PowellVolz
    Just the odds of 4x La Niña’s is very low. Although 3x’s is probably very low also. .
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