PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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New Found Gap changed over around 10:30ish and now they have a few inches. I’m still in disbelief that we have a ULL passing to our SE the second week of February and even at 5k in elevation is struggling. .
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Man this stinks… so close but so far away. I’m at 1,200’ in Halls… .
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What a shame… .
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SPC expanded the area to cover almost all of Tennessee and the slight risk is up in Ohio now. . -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Since the Super Bowl is in Arizona, will we know the final score tonight? . -
Getting some gutter pings every now and then while listening on my back porch. Also interesting my temp is down to 38 under light returns. Feels like Knoxville is not far from the pivot. .
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Just throwing this out that it’s 10 degrees colder under the low pressure than the NE corner of Mississippi .
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Interesting that Huntsville NWS thinks they change to snow for a while tonight and they even said there’s a 10% chance of the temperatures getting below 32° in their area. .
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Feels like we are done here in the valley. Good luck NE guys, I think you all are in good shape. .
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Looks like the twitter storm chasers underwear are getting moist for next week. Looking like a lot of Tennessee will be involved. .
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RGEM scored during the ice event but the Euro who had been the outler, adjusted a couple of days before. It will be interesting to see who scores. Very rare to see the Euro this locked in for several days to end up whiffing. .
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They are typically much more right than wrong. .
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Also wonder if we see any evaporative cooling during the onset. Getting a couple of degrees out of that could help. I’m also still lost how WAA noses in. I like seeing that NE wind coming down the valley. .
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I agree it’s not ideal but we have what we have. Am I trying to figure out how we can score? Yes. Do I think it’s a long shot? Absolutely not. .
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I think you get a thumping .
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I still believe when dynamics take over this will change to snow and will stay snow for anyone on the NW side. If the temps were right, we would be looking at 8-12” across the valley IMO. .
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Im not saying this because I want the best outcome of snow but I always go by the sounding when it’s borderline. I’ve seen multiple times the mods have rain and it end up snow because of dynamics. If this was a mid or surface low I’d go rain but a ULL with heavy enough rates will do it’s job when temps are marginal. Where we are with this is not ideal but I don’t believe we are locked in. Just a couple of degrees will change everything .
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And the NAM has a warm bias. I’m thinking maybe since the NAM over amps a lot, the temps are colder because the precipitation is heavier. More dynamic cooling. .
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MRX will almost always ride with the NWS blend and IMO it is typically 50-75% underdone compared to all of the other mods. Which is confusing considering it’s a blend. Now it’s going to be right or close most of the time because of climatology but when we do get a event that’s more than 5”, it usually busts big time. .
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Guess I should have added that MRX took any mention of snow out of my zip code and raised high temps to 45 on Sunday. Now I’m not at all arguing that it’s wrong but moving away from any winter weather is not the play I would have made. .
