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PowellVolz

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  1. PowellVolz
    If ETn gets a little sunshine on Friday it could get interesting. We don’t typically get surface winds out of the South to SE with a strong low pressure a couple hundred miles to our NW. whether we get a tornado or not, straight line winds are going to be a issue and I won’t be surprised if SPC goes with a enhanced across ETn just for that. MRX is thinking they might go with a high wind warning for the valley and I can’t remember that ever being issued. .
  2. PowellVolz
    Not really. The line that developed gave me 30-40mph gusts but that’s about it. We did have sustained winds of 25-30mph for about an hour before the line moved in. After that the wind just stopped. .
  3. PowellVolz
    MRX on Thursday/Friday. “Thursday night into Friday, the closed low will become increasingly negatively tilted as it moves towards Arkansas, then north of the Ohio River Valley. The expectation is for this to be a very dynamic system with MSLP at the center of the surface low dropping to 980mb or less with uncertainty remaining in the exact track. With a broad warm sector, strong upper dynamics, and impressive LLJ, this system will likely produce notable severe weather across at least some portion of the southeastern U.S. with limited confidence on the exact impacts locally. A lot of this will depend on how quickly the system will occlude, i.e. the surface warm sector reaching our area. The most recent GFS and ensemble mean have both trended further north, suggesting greater potential for occlusion as it reaches the area. The ECMWF, however, brings the warm sector well into the region. Nonetheless, the impressive MSLP gradient and 850mb jet both illustrate likelihood of a notable mountain wave event and gusty winds across the region. This system is certainly something to watch for additional rainfall and strong winds at a minimum with remaining uncertainty for organized severe convection locally. Afterwards, cooler air will funnel into the area with expanding high pressure leading to a drier trend through the weekend” .
  4. PowellVolz
    87mph wind gusts at TYS .
  5. PowellVolz
    First pic is Thursday, second is Friday as of now. Obviously it will change some but this is where we are… .
  6. PowellVolz
    The pivot from a positive to negative tilt sets up over Ark and northern La Thursday afternoon. If trends continue, I think this could be a major outbreak. Friday doesn’t look as bad as the trough ejects NW of the area but the warm sector will be bigger and ETn will be close to the right exit of the jet. On the other side, widespread rains could greatly reduce instability. I do think this has the potential to be significant, especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. .
  7. PowellVolz
    Lol… Saudi Arabia just had their first snow in 100 years. Insult to injury .
  8. PowellVolz
    .
  9. PowellVolz
    Someone closed the blinds. .
  10. PowellVolz
    Probably the most competitive year I’ve ever seen. 1st through 10th are mostly the same. 11th though 20th are not much worse. Typically you have 2 or 3 teams that are hands down the best but that’s not the case this year. .
  11. PowellVolz
    Earlier today it was 40ish degrees and coming a sleet blizzard. A 1/2 mile up it looked like you were driving into a dust storm. .
  12. PowellVolz
    Friends in Nashville are reporting light snow .
  13. PowellVolz
    SPC added middle Tennessee to the 10% hatched tornado and it sounds like a upgrade is coming for MTn to a moderate risk. “Kinematically, a period of strengthening shear is expected into the afternoon, followed by leveling off and perhaps some lessening of shear due to veering surface winds. This will lead to varying but generally large hodograph sizes and shapes, but with effective SRH generally remaining in the 250-400 J/kg range over much of the area. The wind profiles throughout that cycle will be favorable for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range over southern areas, to 50-60 kt across the Tennessee Valley region. A northward extension of significant-tornado probabilities is being made accordingly, and some parts of this region may need a further, tactically focused, tornado-driven upgrade today, as mesoscale trends and later objective guidance warrant” .
  14. PowellVolz
    Please hang on Vols!!! .
  15. PowellVolz
    Maybe we’ll get lucky and have a ULL track to our SE up the coast… .
  16. PowellVolz
    I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a trough go this positive tilt before which has caused it to become a strung out mess for tomorrow. I do believe central Ala up to southern central Tennessee has the best chance of tornadoes but forcing is weak and unless we get a short wave, WAA is the main driver. Cams are suggesting the bulk of the morning convection will stay north of ETn. 850’s are screaming up the valley when the afternoon line moves in. I think flooding is the biggest issue for Tennessee east of Nashville. .
  17. PowellVolz
    I might be in the minority but I’m ready for spring unless we get a great shot at a good snow. .
  18. PowellVolz
    .
  19. PowellVolz
    I’m not going to pretend I know half as much about severe weather as @jaxjagman but here’s my opinion based on what I have seen over the years and I’d like for Jax to chime in. ETn IMO is very specific to low level wind direction and storm mode. The majority of our severe weather events are linear or QLCS because of troughs becoming more positive tilt as the move east. Most of our surface winds in severe weather comes from the SW which means our low level winds are running almost parallel to storm motion. So we end up with very little to any low level turning. So for ETn to get more low level rotation we need more South to SE surface winds. So that creates the issue of the surface winds having to go up and over the mountains. Obviously that creates more problems. So how do we get more turning at low levels? Have a more west to east storm track. This gives ETn more turning angle in the lower levels. Out of all the tornadoes that have touched down in or around Knoxville since I’ve been around have a more west to east storm track. The only exception would be in and around the foothills where the mountains create it’s own micro climate of the winds backing a little more. 3 notable tornado touch downs around Knoxville stand out. February of 93’ a EF3 tornado tracked from Oak Ridge to Powell to Hallls in a west to east motion. In April of 98, a EF2 tornado tracked west to east from Claxton to Powell to Ft City. In November 2002 a strong EF3 tornado tracked just north of Knoxville from Cumberland Co to southern Morgan Co to Anderson Co. Now that storm wasn’t as W to E as the other ones as it had a slight movement of S to N in it. There’s been a couple of tornadoes in Claiborne Co around Tazewell and those were more west to east based. Now I’m not at all saying ETn can not get a tornado to touch down with a SW to NE track because we had a weak one just a month ago in Jefferson Co but IMO I feel like more west to east based cells have more potential than SW to NE tracks. .
  20. PowellVolz
    I’m putting down pre emerg tomorrow .
  21. PowellVolz
    It’s already very foggy .
  22. PowellVolz
    I played golf Friday. Had pants on but easily could have had shorts. .
  23. PowellVolz
    Grundy Co. looks like several inches .
  24. PowellVolz
    I forgot you were not at home. Snow is mixing in now at my house .
  25. PowellVolz
    It has to be snowing @John1122 by now. .
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