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PowellVolz

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Everything posted by PowellVolz

  1. PowellVolz
    Yes.. same day. The LC tornado was really bad. .
  2. PowellVolz
    In Knoxville we had a F3 (EF3 now) touchdown from Clinton to Powell to Halls. It was really bad. 1/2 mile from my house but this was in February of 93’. Blizzard right after that. .
  3. PowellVolz
    Yes… upper ETn does well with handoffs but you’ve got to be NE of Morristown. Similar to the winter of 96’ I believe. .
  4. PowellVolz
    Some of our best winters have ended up with AN temps. Obviously it makes timing more critical but I’ll take my chances with borderline temps over an extended period of very cold air and the GOM closed for business. If we keep getting opportunities for a Miller A etc…. Eventually it will hit. I don’t want to be picky but I hate Miller B’s or some kind of handoff, overrunning event. Give me a trailing ULL following a cold front and let it ride. My point is… let’s not freak out just yet. Long ways to go. .
  5. PowellVolz
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  6. PowellVolz
    You talking Tennessee only or overall for the day? Looks like the number is in the mid 20’s for the day. We are really lucky this didn’t line up perfectly. If the trough had of gone negative 12 hours earlier, a couple of these tornadoes could have been high end. .
  7. PowellVolz
    What’s the forecast timeline for teleconnecters? 3 weeks? .
  8. PowellVolz
    God has a plan for all of us and it sounds like he isn’t finished with you. Stay faithful and keep praying. We will pray for you and your family. It’s great that they got you to a trama facility when they did. I know most of you live out in rural areas but I’d recommend anyone that thinks they are really sick, get to a university hospital. My wife is a admin supervisor at UTMC. The sickest of the sick are sent there for a reason because they have great Dr’s and staff with unlimited resources in healthcare. .
  9. PowellVolz
    Maybe I don’t pay attention enough but I can’t remember a trough just completely collapsing on the backside like this. I can anyone explain why this happened? .
  10. PowellVolz
    One other note on this… I believe when this system showed up 2 weeks ago it was in a much better location but we are trending towards that the last two days. .
  11. PowellVolz
    I didn’t see this post but I was thinking basically the same thing. The low forming SW of the valley would be ideal but I won’t complain if it’s just south of us. One other tend has been for the trough to stay positive longer. If that trend would continue, it would open up the back door for the wrap around NW flow machine even if the the low stays north of us a little. .
  12. PowellVolz
    Anyone else surprised at the trend has been south for the weekend system? I know we are still way off on getting to the winter side of this but we are much closer than I ever imagined also. If we could get the low to form 200 miles SW, it would at least give us a little backside opportunity. .
  13. PowellVolz
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  14. PowellVolz
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  15. PowellVolz
    Snow line is below 2k now .
  16. PowellVolz
    Three interesting pics from this morning. The first is 3k feet above Gatlinburg, the second is Newfound Gap (2.5”) and the 3rd is Leconte (6”). .
  17. PowellVolz
    I started checking around and we were 37-39 at several different locations in NKC but areas to my N/NW were several degrees warmer. There was either some cold air trapped in the valley or maybe some warmer air aloft because my temp went up a few degrees when it started raining. .
  18. PowellVolz
    Kinda interesting that the temp has really fallen off much faster than I thought. Down to 38 at my house with rain moving in. The forecast for the higher elevations said rain until 11 but it’s already 35 in Gatlinburg and 30 at Newfound Gap. .
  19. PowellVolz
    Oh boy… https://x.com/webberweather/status/1731755424406511631?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .
  20. PowellVolz
    That was an upper level trough with a weak surface low that tracked from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes. That’s pretty much textbook for severe weather east of the Rockies but this system brought so much more that amplified it. 850mb winds out of the SSW were in the 95 percentile of climatology (40-70mph) overspreading the warm sector near the right exit of the LLJ. The ULJ westerlies were screaming up to 120km but the split flow of the ULJ was the straw that broke its back. When the ULJ crossed the trough, part of the jet veered to the north while the southern part continued east. When the jet spilts like that it leaves a void in the atmosphere. The atmosphere sees that void and tries to fill it in to correct the atmospheric imbalance. So the air below the void rapidly rises to fill it in. We all know what rising air does for storms. Another ingredient to this system was the Elevated Mix Layer (EML) was stronger than normal for this time of year. A stout EML in the warm sector helps hold back the showers and clouds that can mix the atmosphere out which reduces buoyancy. That’s why that system was able to have a few dominant supercells get out in front of the main line and survive as long as it did. I’m sure I left something out and @jaxjagman can help me out. .
  21. PowellVolz
    A 15% day 6 is rare, especially this time of year. Doesn’t look like it as of now but hopefully this isn’t a Dec 11, 2021 scenario. .
  22. PowellVolz
    Picked up just shy of 3 inches of rain the last 36 hours. Have had between 5-6” over the past 10 days. Not a drought buster but it’s definitely put a big dent in it. If my memory serves me right, I believe the winter following the 2016 drought was very active. I was supposed to play golf today but decided against it with yesterday’s rain but I was surprised to see the ground wasn’t nearly as wet as I expected around my lawn. .
  23. PowellVolz
    Seen a tweet talking about El Niño winters after severe drought conditions in ETn. Something like 3 of our 4 major droughts during a Nino was followed by some of our snowiest winters on record. One of those was a late 1800’s winter that was the snowiest winter on record for Knoxville. Obviously not suggesting this is coming but it’s nice to have some history on your side. One good thing either way, dry Nino winters seem very rare. .
  24. PowellVolz
    Next weekend looking really interesting. Severe on the front with NW flow on the back. .
  25. PowellVolz
    That’s strange. I was at 23 when I left my house at 6:30 and the temp downtown was 31 at 6:55 yesterday morning. This morning it was 34 at the same time downtown and 26 at my house. heat island maybe? .
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