PowellVolz

WVLT is riding with the NAM it looks like. .

I didn’t look at the temps but I’m guessing the GFS thinks the front is ahead of schedule? .

I showed my wife all the mods. She picked the 3k NAM would probably be right. I’m packing her bags now. .

Also… im not sure it’s gonna make it to the low 40’s today. It’s 30.8 at my house. .

My buddy in Jackson is saying Memphis NWS thinks this is interstate 40 and south. Tells me they don’t like the NAM. .

Update from MRX… .

The HRW mods… don’t they have a NAM influence to them? They are much further SE than the NAM. More in line with the RGEM. .

Looks like Knoxville is still ok with the RGEM. (For now) .

Is the warm nose from WAA or because the depth of the cold hasn’t spread that far east yet? .

Serious question about the DGZ… obviously I know what it is but what is the depth of it? Is it a shallow layer in the atmosphere or does it continue up into the atmosphere? I guess what I’m asking is… the lack of snow in the mountains, is there ever a situation where Mt Leconte could be above the moisture feed? .

Every morning I get up and look at TWC app just to delay being disappointed for when I look at the board. This morning TWC has 3-5” for Monday and 3-5” for Monday night. [emoji41] .

Chicago got absolutely screwed and the NAM had it right? .

I was talking about the NBM mod that was posted 2 posts above me. .

I think it’s a combination of all mods with some tweaks. Regardless, that’s one of the best runs I’ve ever seen for Tennessee .

I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do. .

Agree. I’m in the pretty colors. [emoji23] .

Not fired up about the trends this afternoon if they are in fact trends and not glitchs. The more the system we are dealing with now moves out of our region, the more the mods seem to be act strange. [emoji1745] .

It’s like the moisture never really clears the Plateau .

I feel like typically in and around Knoxville it takes more than 2 or 3 inches to cause any problems unless we are dealing with temps closer to 20 degrees. 75% of the time we end up with more QPF from brine than Mother Nature. .

I don’t understand the new criteria, or the thinking behind changing it. It doesn’t change the outcome regardless what products they put out. .

I like it .

There’s no option off the table. We are excited about “what could be” but we know better than to count chickens at any point before nowcasting. However I do agree that the NAM at 84 is just something to look at or be used to verify other mods. .

Is that the new DGEX? .

I haven’t read much on the details of their % but is there a radius like the SPC uses for severe weather? Example: “10% chance of a tornado at a given location within a 50 mile radius”? .

JeepVols .