PowellVolz

That would be interesting .

FYI... the day of the SE Tennessee snow last Saturday the WRF was the only mod showing snow up to Knoxville. All 3 of those on pivotal made the jump to the NAM/Euro for tomorrow’s system .

MRX’s region is what I was getting at. Where most of us live. I was being silly. .

MRX starting to change their stance on this. Even saying they believe the temp profiles on the mods are to high. “Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains where confidence in increasing for some impactful snow accumulations on Thursday. Across mountain areas where temperatures will be below freezing, total accumulations are expected to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts above 4000 feet. For lower elevations of the valley and plateau, confidence is still significantly lower. Anticipate temperatures to be lower than much of current guidance suggests with strong dynamic lift within the right-entrance region of a strong upper jet. Saturation is present through the DGZ, and the thermal profile should support snow for much of the area, including valley locations. However, with much of the snow forecast to occur during the middle of the day, and the increased sun angle in late February, expect it will be difficult to accumulate much of the snow. For this reason, current forecast shows that most accumulations outside of the mountains will be light and limited to mainly grassy surfaces. Most snow will likely melt on contact. Do not expect many impacts to travel across lower elevations with the exception of reduced visibility and potential slick spots if snow rates are heavier than anticipated for a short period of time” .

MRX going with a WWA for the mountains .

In this case the only likely outcome would be 8 to 10” of snow CWA .

Nothing close to a slam dunk and I’m sure that’s why MRX is going safe. .

3k NAM is really close to the GFS. One says snow, one says rain. .

The GFS is showing rain at this point but this looks like snow. Also it looks like the winds are N/NE down to the surface. Am I reading this right? 0c is down to 950. Isn’t that low enough? .

Knoxville was 25ish that morning and it didn’t stick to the main roads. Bridges and off/on ramps became pretty bad but that was with only around an inch of snow. That being said, it’s never crossed my mind even at 2-3” that this snow would stick to the roads. Maybe the shaded areas. .

Actually what I missed was not looking to see where we went -0c and it looks to be no higher/lower than 850mb. You’re right, definitely wet snow. .

Maybe I’m reading this wrong but everything looks +0c. What am I missing? .

MRX...... [emoji849] the NAM and Euro are together on this, they actually get better overnight and our boys lower the snow amount across most of the CWA? I feel like I read this every time there’s a chance for snow. .

And I’d like to know what they have seen to change their mind, especially how the euro jumped in. .

And just like that, MRX updates their map just now to pretty much remove all snow in Knoxville. .

Not trying to beat this into the ground but let’s not forget the Precip shield has been further NW the last several systems than what was shown. .

I’m just about 100% positive that’s the inverted trough snow we got. I remembered it was on a Wednesday and was pretty sure it was in 14’ .

Absolutely. What I was thinking is if the boundary was in the valley, the SE flow over the mountains might down slop before it was lifted back up. I very well could be overthinking this and cramming to much into a small space. .

It was 2014 I believe. We were in between two systems. About a week before we had a snow/sleet/RZ system that dumped 3-6 inches across the valley before changing to sleet. The inverted trough happened on a Wednesday afternoon and the NWS didn’t start talking about it till the night before. I ended up with 4-5”. A week later we had another overrunning event that was snow to ice to rain. School was out for two weeks. .

Just thinking out loud here but with marginal temps the valley needs a possible inverted trough to stay over the mountains. If it lines up in the valley wouldn’t downsloping become a problem? .

18z NAM out to 57 looks on track. .

Not that it really matters storm to storm but the last system that did well in SE Tennessee, only the NAM for several days had snow into Knoxville and thats what happened. Also the Euro didn’t have the precip field far enough NW a few weeks back for the system that effected SC/NC. .

Something we have seen many times is the NAM will lead the way with an aggressive move. What happens next with the globals will give us a good idea which way we are headed. .

Beautiful .