PowellVolz

In the past hour the low level winds have really picked up. Feels like it’s directly out of the south. .

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Sunny in Knoxville. 78/68 now .

Yep. Coming out in Knoxville now. Lots of clearing down towards the southern valley. 74/66 now .

I also think this has high bust potential in Indiana and Ohio. .

I’m wondering, concerned with the potential that the cluster complex in MTn lays down a boundary on its SE flank that could back low level winds more. I am worried about the plateau region into upper ETn including Knoxville. This area doesn’t look like it will see any crap showers and the sun continues to poke through at times. .

Already a 15% added for Tuesday. If the mods are right, we gonna have some issues I’m afraid. .

Not because I’m a fan but I think Tennessee is a terrible matchup for Creighton. Won’t be the first time I’m wrong but what Tenn does well on offense and defense is not what Creighton wants to see. That being said, Tenn can’t shoot as bad as they have the last several games and win. Below 40% in 4 of the last 5 will not beat Creighton. One thing that give me hope is the Texas game was our crap the bed game we have lost every tournament but this time we were good enough to win. Creighton plays solid team defense but everyone of their losses, the other team had a player they couldn’t guard one on one. Creighton is gonna have a hard time with DK. .

Return flow off the GOM has been closed for business. I don’t know all the reasons for that, I just haven’t went looking for why but east of the Mississippi River has absolutely dodged some bullets. The April 1st, 2nd system doesn’t look like return flow will be an issue, especially on Tuesday. If we get a phase over the mid west this could be a high end event. Gonna be pushing 80 in Knoxville with DP’s in the mid 60’s but it’s hard to tell the depth and quality of GOM return flow. .

April 1st and 2nd has an interesting look to it. Mid South, Ohio Valley region .

Like you said we are still several days out from the potential weather maker for the first of next week. IMO I would continue to follow the local NWS for the area in question like you are doing. However I’d say there’s a high likelihood of a impactful system from the mid west to the east coast from Sunday through Tuesday. Really hard to tell right now if this is gonna be a widespread rain event or a quick hitter squall line. By Friday afternoon the NWS should have a better handle on the local impacts for your location. We have some very talented weather enthusiasts on this site so check back in on Friday afternoon if you still need some help. .

Here’s the averages for March 2016. If I’m reading this right, the average temp was +14 degrees and if you look at the first week of the month the average mean temp was 46 degrees. .

I’m sure it’s up there. I don’t keep up with the numbers that much but March 2016 was very warm. I play a lot of golf and I remember Bermuda was coming in towards the end of March 16’ and it was wiped out the week before/of Easter that year. We had mid to upper 20’s for about a week that year. A friend of mine owns a landscaping business and I help him out some when he gets backed up. That year we replaced over 120 crept myrtles at his Ihop stores. We learned a hard lesson that year. Do not trim back crept myrtle shrubs until the first of March. .

Just noticed redbuds are 50-75% in depending on tree location. I’m sure this isn’t an anomaly but this does seem quite early by a few weeks or so. .

One cold night shouldn’t be a major issue and let’s not forget that lows in the 20’s this time of year once or twice is almost expected. For the most part everything that’s blooming now or budding can handle a night or two of temps below 29 degrees. Temps below 29 degrees for more than a couple of nights is when I get concerned. I also think the mods could be a couple of degrees too cold considering there will be a 10-25 mph wind blowing at times. .