495weatherguy

What would you estimate the odds are of warmer weather? Cutoff implies bdcf?

Cameras confirm snow at similar time in Melville

today was beautiful I could do without yesterday

I hope you are correct this weather is tiresome

Thank you. Depressing news hopefully this will make it easier to be inside though

Ugh But if it helps in keeping people at home, so be it. Imagine if it was 70's and sunny?

How cool are you talking about?

That would be nice

Wow

Snowing ever so slightly at Nassau/Suffolk border

True---wonder if the recently sub-optimal weather will help keep people inside and help prevent the spread of the disease

Can you put this into context? Approximately how many degrees above normal are you thinking? 3-5? Higher minimums? High humidity? Just want to be prepared mentally

I want to agree 100% but I lived through the 70’s and 80’s consistently told that big snows couldn’t happen on LI you never know

Precisely what I have been saying for a few years now. People’s expectations of winter on LI have been altered.

Thank you for the explanation--much appreciated

If you were a betting person, which way would you lean?

Excellent point---I was only going by what I know. Thanks for pointing that out. What I don't understand is why it was hammered into our heads that NYC(absent the Bronx) and Long Island was not a good environment for snow? Anyway, thanks for the info

Truth

I don't recall that one---The biggest storm I remember was 1983, February I believe. I was in western Nassau

Absolutely. Normal as defined by our limited time of recorded history. I was just repeating what all of the “Experts” claimed was the reasoning behind our limited snow. we had lots of winter days like today on Long Island back in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s

As someone who grew up on LI in the 70’s and 80’s I can tell you this is what most winters were like. Countless times the snow went “north and west” of the Tappan Zee bridge. The explanation given by the meteorologists on TV and radio was that LI was not conducive to snow. There were “too many variables” working against LI to get one of those 2 foot storms frequently, like warm ocean air as a primary example. 6 inches was a rarity then. The 80’s has April of 82, which started to melt as soon as the clouds cleared, and Feb of 83, which was a huge storm, I remember almost 2 feet. Nothing really until 95/6. That winter was colossal, “unheard of for our area”. Since the turn of the century, our winters have been unbelievable. Inevitably, they will return to the “normal” ranges

excellent post

I completely understand that the models have been atrocious---no problem with that occurring. My question is why are people so sure that they are right and belittle people who question their forecasts? Haven't we seen countless forecasts bust? With the weather nothing is set in stone We all have our biases and desirous outcomes, but we cannot alter the weather

Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter? Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island) The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view.

Very true Seems as though there was much less precipitation in winter overall in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s