understudyhero

Haymarket. Moderate flurries raging. Deck caved instantly.

Usually my blacktop drive way in Haymarket warms enough to loosen the last little bits of ice when shoveled. It stayed cold enough when I moved the car that was in the driveway whatever falling snow (from the car) touched the driveway that hadn't been exposed "to the sun" froze instantly to the newly vacated spot.

It always trends north then?

I just checked out St. Armand’s Circle - all the first floor stuff got three feet of waves last hurricane. These are places I have been going to for two decades and I doubt they open again after this storm

I just realized the lawn crew fertilized our yard last week. By Monday this will be a jungle.

Got the dimming of the lights about ten minutes ago in Haymarket.

Coming home in Haymarket about twenty minutes ago I already saw cloud to ground lightning in the direction of Warrenton. The thunder has been audible now for about ten minutes.

Thunder in haymarket just now?looks like it’s going to be a graze on rain though.

No we are rebounding from the worse year in recorded history with "not the worse year again". Only up from here.

why 8? you're cherry picking. rolling averages is better or same-state weather patterns or or or ... Just picking bad periods to make your math works is an exercise in exclusion.

Rolling average. The ten years ending with the year in question. Otherwise it's just arbitrary 10 years. Look at the attached pic. That's snow totals by year ranked 1 to 132. notice we are getting BETTER with big total years to the right side (lowest points, most recent) compared to the left side where there is nothing in the circled area (highest ranking space). Also notice the bad years are getting more frequent. What does that tell us? I don't know but I would rather live in the odds on the right side than that horrible period in the center/right without any big snows. (Which is in fact 68-77 roughly , just went and looked at the data)

1968-1977 I accidentally closed the source window to check, but it was ~13.1" average. where I got source: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/baltimore/most-yearly-snow

But it's also not 68" needed in the next two years to avoid being the worse 10 year period ever. it's 56", and 57" makes us the second worse. We do need 69" to make it up to the third worse 10 year streak though (from second worse). More random facts : if you average our "place" in winters for 10 years as well (the worst being last year at 132nd), we are average 80.8. If you look at the year before the #1 (1996) we were 81.3 average (1995).

Last year screws with that rolling 8 year average. Prior to last year we were ~15" average, those single digit years hurt no matter when they hit. If we got 15" next year (the average prior to the shut out year) we would be up 10.3 (almost a full inch up) on your eight year rolling average. Edit: I think your math might be off. 56" in 2024+ 2025 would bring us to 1968-1977 on a rolling ten year average (meaning average snow per year over a ten year period) and ~132" total over each of the ten year periods.

Thunder and lightning no rain yet as the very edge of the storm seems to be approaching Haymarket.