Jump to content

Warm Nose

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    919

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Warm Nose

  1. Warm Nose
    42 here
  2. Warm Nose
    Sunny 41
  3. Warm Nose
    JI, probably:
  4. Warm Nose
    I'll hope the N&W is correct. But based on experience we'll probably be on the edge too despite the models. 3" is my O/U for this event.
  5. Warm Nose
    Don't worry, you'll still be the 'worst in the area'
  6. Warm Nose
  7. Warm Nose
    You must have been fun to parent as a child
  8. Warm Nose
    Thread Mood:
  9. Warm Nose
    Speaking of football ...
  10. Warm Nose
  11. Warm Nose
  12. Warm Nose
    Just confirming since I'm a bit slow: Now we're giving credence to the GFS aka 'worst verifying model' (according to earlier posts) since it shows what people want?
  13. Warm Nose
    Current state of models:
  14. Warm Nose
    Verifications:
  15. Warm Nose
    They'll be grasping at the Kuchera for RAP and the like
  16. Warm Nose
    tl;dr: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  17. Warm Nose
    Current state of this sub
  18. Warm Nose
    Supposed to leave for my cruise on the 31st! Dulles got to do some work ...
  19. Warm Nose
    More like 666
  20. Warm Nose
    I saw maybe 3 mangled flakes
  21. Warm Nose
  22. Warm Nose
    Current thread:
  23. Warm Nose
    You're hugging the RAP ...
  24. Warm Nose
    My issue isn't with Kuchera itself - it's a tool that attempts to boil down the prediction of ratios into an algorithm even though there are an exponential number variables that feed into that equation. It's simplistic and flawed (as is every other model) and should be taken with a grain of salt but I understand the intention and it at least makes an attempt at prediction. Therein lies the skill of the forecaster. We do see 'lazy' forecasters (present company excluded lol) giving it a bit too much weight.
  25. Warm Nose
×
×
  • Create New...