Warm Nose

3" seems to be the realistic outcome here for most. LWX discussion: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Heading into Tuesday, we have a favorable setup for a long duration of snow across the area. With a broad upper trough over the CONUS and a CAD wedge over the area with surface high pressure to our northeast, we`ll have a cold thermal profile in place and Gulf moisture streaming in aloft from the SW Tuesday and through midweek. Guidance has been trending later with this system, with precip now expected to begin mid-late Tuesday morning and overspread the area SW to NE through Tuesday night. Precip type is expected to be snow to start, with some sleet/freezing rain mixing in along our southern tier where temps rise through the day. There is some uncertainty regarding temperatures during the day Tuesday as the surface high to our northeast begins to erode. Precip type and accumulation will be dependent on these temperatures as well as precip rates. Currently, high temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 30s. While temperatures will be dropping Tuesday night after sunset, WAA aloft to expected to gradually erode the CAD wedge from south to north overnight. More sleet/freezing rain is expected to mix in as a result Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are currently out for Tuesday and Tuesday night for expected snow totals of 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6-7 inches possible. Ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch is possible along our southern tier. Further Warnings and Advisories may be issued today, so be sure to check weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest information. As the initial disturbance moves offshore during the day Wednesday, a lull in precip is expected before a second disturbance approaches from the southwest. Precip type is expected to be more of a sleet/freezing rain mix than snow, before gradually turning over to rain through Wednesday afternoon. IP/ZR likely continue along and east of the ridges where cold air hangs on a bit longer.

You're looking at the Wednesday event. All of their snow falls on Tuesday and overnight. Yes, it's still overdone but this doesn't show that.

This has high bust potential written on it ... I suspect we'll see a lot of disappointed people in the Obs thread come Wed morning.

This is setting up for a classic letdown when folks expect 6-8 sub-wide. 3-5 for most is the bar, I think, and we should be very happy with that if it verifies.

Ya'll realize you be postin' on a troll model, right?

Given most of the Sub is 4"-8" 48 hours out, even when you cut the usual 20% totals hype from wishcasting that would still be a 3"-5" event. Take.

Agree, time to put a stake in January ...

Temperature inversion! 11 degrees while stations lower are 5, 3.

11

11/-5

I think that meets 'BUST' criteria ...

RGEM yesterday. Honestly not too far off - the thermals wrecked things east of 15.

Down to 27 here now. Cleared the driveway with the snowblower but the pixie dust has made everything really crunchy.

To the Mets on the board, what's the post-mortem for this one? Seems once the front took more time it screwed up the thermals resulting in a bunch of wasted QPF, not to mention the QPF itself was less amped than predicted.

29.5 and a some light pixie dust, but 97.935% over here.

West of Round Hill.

Pretty much done here. About 3.75" and will be under the prog'd totals, but I suspect everyone will be.

Back edge is racing this way - I suspect we'll be largely done by 5:30p

Can't stress this enough - rates are going to have to be big to get stuff to stick. Surface temps are above freezing and there's melting. If the rates dip, the snow's going to also melt as a result, at least until the colder temps arrive. It's snowing pretty good here but pavement and other surfaces are melting and I hear the water flowing down the gutters.

With surface temps still above 32, if the rates lessen up it's all melting. Pavement was caving and then rates slacked up and the pavement won. Same for other surfaces as well. Any accums will be rate-dependent today.

Thanks goodness it's not wasted ...

Decent steady rate here for the last 45 minutes or so. It's wet though pavement is caving.

I just took a trip to the store from Western Loudoun up and over Blue Ridge mountain to Berryville and then back about 30 minutes later. Surface temps here were around 36 when I left with very light drizzle/mangled snow. At the top of Clarke's Gap at 31 deg the mangled frizzle turned into actual SN. Back down on the other side the surface is sitting just above 32 with more light SnowTV/White rain but nothing is sticking anywhere. It was that way until I got back to the top of the mountain where it was 31 and I started to see some stickage. Back down on the Eastern foothills of the BR it's 34 and the rate has increased somewhat to where I'm getting minor accumulation on concrete and grass. It's all SN here at this point though I am at 800' and right on the edge it seems. Bottom line - this batch is pretty to look at but not going to really do anything for accums so don't expect much at this stage. If temps dip a few degrees and rates pick up then it could be another story.