Warm Nose

This. Surface temps even at what's proj or lower isn't going to get it done unless somehow the air fryer at 850 from the east somehow shuts off ...

Got up to 43 here. Seems promising

Good news is I need the space in my garage so I can finally make the decision to junk the snowblower that hasn't worked properly in 3-4 years anyhow.

Next ...

This. You do not want to be heading up and over Snickers Gap if the rates are as advertised.

Prob belongs in Banter, but I can suggest several spaces: NAMd Sun Angle Will I be OK to drive to [insert place] App Runner Outlier ... Toss [...] Pummeled! (will also accept Short Pump) Snow hole

Current mood ITT:

There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ...

Rayno

You misspelled 'mix'

Just west of RH, @ 800ft on the nose...

New Sterling discussion, SIAP. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong southern stream mid/upper-level trough over the Mid-South Friday night quickly moves northeast as it phases into a flat trough over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast and very quickly moves across the Southeast states through Saturday morning. The surface low becomes better organized as it crosses eastern NC into far southeast VA, where it moves offshore along the NC/VA border. Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US- 15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between. Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow preceding the surface low are not generally favorable for accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile. Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain, near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the weekend approaches. The coastal low tracks northeast and away from the area Saturday night, then a reinforcing upper trough traverses the area on Sunday. Some lingering rain and snow showers possible during the first part of Monday north of I-66 and west of the Blue Ridge, though conditions dry out quickly in the afternoon. Upslope mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night.

"When all else fails, rely on historical climo" seems to be the writing on the wall for this one.

37 and still all rain here at 800'.

All your waves are belong to us.

The only question this year is how and when the fail will reveal itself.

OMG Rain! 36/27

OP, please change thread title to: "sNOw chance"

Snow hole seems legit to verify.

Our winter ...