Warm Nose

Back to back 2-4 inch snows that stay around gets us in a decent place ...

Here's your explanation: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/machine-learning-model-data Blog post here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2023/rise-machine-learning-weather-forecasting The one I referenced uses Google's Deepmind.

Yeah, this ML one in particular shows a storm ... https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401120000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121200

This isn't part of the Euro itself. It's an ML model(s) that uses the Euro as an input to analyze and explain why the model sees what it does and 'learn' from it.

Mood ...

[Ducks and runs]

Current state of affairs

fify

We're gonna fill the Bingo card before we get to Saturday at this rate...

Woe is Ji .. no wind

Last bit then the back edge getting ready to swing through. PWS gauge reads 2.55" for today. Thankfully not the 4-5" as forecast for the foothills of the BR. Little to no wind still at all.

Wind so far has not mixed down here at all. My max gust all day has been around 6mph on my PWS. Up to 1.85in on the rain gauge with some pretty hefty rates right now.

All of us ITT:

Current mood:

Garbage day ... mostly a sleetfest followed by a washout. Good news is we get to do it again in a few days, minus the sleet.

Total sleet bomb here.

Right on cue - flipped over to all IP

Steady light rate ... seeing some larger flakes every now and then but if we get higher rates I'm betting it'll pull down some of the warm air

30.7, up a degree in the last few hours ... waiting for the mid-levels to torch

I'll take the under ... along with the total of points the Redskins Commanders score this weekend

Updated discussion from LWX 000 FXUS61 KLWX 060241 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts off the Delmarva coast this evening while an area of low pressure tracks northeast from the Gulf Coast heading into Saturday. This storm system will bring a widespread wintry mix of precipitation to the region Saturday into Sunday morning. High pressure briefly returns Monday before another potent area of low pressure crosses the region Tuesday into Wednesday next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Broad troughing extends from Iowa southward toward the Gulf Coast this evening, with a prominent shortwave trough located within the base of the larger trough over eastern Texas. This shortwave will rapidly lift northeastward overnight, reaching the Tennessee Valley by daybreak. High clouds have overspread the majority of the area this evening, well in advance of the system approaching from the southwest. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower over the course of the night. Precipitation may break out just prior to daybreak in the central Shenandoah Valley/central Virginia Piedmont as stronger large scale ascent/low-level warm advection moves in from the southwest. 00z hi- res guidance indicates that much of this precipitation may initially fall in the form of freezing rain across the central Shenandoah Valley/central Virginia Piedmont. Winter weather headlines start in those locations at 4 AM. Further north and east, the majority of the forecast area should experience dry conditions overnight. Lows will be in the 20s for most, with lower 30s in downtown DC and Baltimore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The southern stream jet intensifies from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A series of strong upper troughs will traverse along the southern stream jet, as an associated surface low pressure develops over the Deep South and quickly progresses northeast. This low intensifies as it reaches southeast VA Saturday, then moves over the Delmarva Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to overspread the area starting early Saturday morning, mostly in the form of snow, with sleet and freezing rain mixing in at times, especially for portions of the central Shenandoah Valley, central Virginia Piedmont and central Blue Ridge. For areas right along and east of I-95 any snow is not expected to stick beyond a coating on the grass/elevated surfaces where precip quickly turns to a cold rain by mid morning. As the morning progresses the 850mb temps warm above freezing as strong WAA pushes a nose of moderated/warmer marine air atop the cold air at the surface. The warm nose will vary in temperature across the area, which is going to result in a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet, especially along/east of I-81. Cold air is likely to hang around the longest west of the Blue Ridge and north of US-48 where primary p-type through the event is snow. Even in the areas where snow totals are higher, there is concern that sleet and/or a wintry mix could bring down overall snow totals. The rain/snow line will push inland through the afternoon, likely reaching just east of the Blue Ridge. Some models indicate there is a potential for precip to revert back to freezing rain as night falls and temperatures drop, roughly a line from Winchester to Dulles north toward the PA border. Uncertainties remain on exact snow and ice amounts. Regardless, this winter storm is going to produce hazardous conditions due to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, and up to around one-quarter inch along the Central Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Warning/Advisory areas. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-7" for western Maryland and much of the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. A tight gradient of 1-3" likely sets up near the I-81 corridor and cutting east through Frederick MD and Carroll. East of the gradient and along the I-95 corridor snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch. The surface low pressure will quickly move offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday. Aloft, an elongated shortwave trough will remain atop the region, helping to produce upslope mountain snow showers. An additional few inches of snow is possible along/west of the Allegheny Front through Sunday night. Some light snow showers or flurries could spill east of the mountains during the day. Brisk WNW winds gusting to 20mph possible in the afternoon as highs reach the low to mid 40s.