Warm Nose

SPC pretty consistent we'll get some severe weather SPC AC 141249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025

Storms are starting to pop as suggested on the Meso discussion, so we may see a watch soon.

Yeah it has to be winter in the first place for it to end. Recently we've had late fall that just goes all the way until early spring.

You misspelled 'societal'

In fairness, 95 looks like that on most days.

The 'Price is Not Right' storm

Anxiously awaiting my 'societal' snow ... The scary thing is someone typed that and felt compelled to add it to the advisory.

Legit nothing ... it's beautiful 19/7

Dews are in the single digits here. Nothing is going to get to the ground anytime soon.

SO, in South Carolina then ...

Anecdotally, I suspect the 'road brine' business is booming if you are looking for future investment opportunities.

Understand that future budgeting cycles are often based on previous year's actuals. If you want to ensure you have more money allocated next year, it pays to roll the trucks at the very hint of weather.