Warm Nose

I see we're moving slowly from the Bargaining stage to the Depression stage ... final one is Acceptance

Roughly 2 inches, which makes it not a complete bust-o-rama. It was still fun. If there's a next one, great, if not at least we saw more snow this year here than I did last.

no way in hell that's even verifying here

Rates here are good but not spectacular. Nowhere near enough to overcome the pavement. With the looks of things I think I'll be lucky to get 2", more likely about and inch and a half which will bust way lower than the 5-8 LWX has. Not a big deal but the speed of this and lower QPF ended up getting us here. Trends mean something and just like Monday, it's gonna bust low. On to the next, if there is one.

Meso discussion from SPC, would seem to support there's issue with drier air. Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours.

38/17.

Go sell miserable somewhere else. We're all stocked up here.

LWX pretty much holds with the previous forecast

LWX holds serve Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 911 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 MDZ004>006-008-011-503>508-VAZ040-501-505>507-526-171000- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.240217T0400Z-240217T1000Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William- 911 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow, with total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD County. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible for a few hours under the heaviest snow bands. Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && $$

You need to take a break.

Trends ... can't ignore them.

Play the latest trends ... last minute bumps and then underperformance during the events. Still a good total regardless

Totals are gonna be decent but man, those rates - that's the real jewel of this event.