janetjanet998

"and somewhere between in the 72-96 hr range of a 10-15 inch deluge" this is what concerns me right now over the region including the OH valley..that happened in May of 2010 over TN but with lake levels and streamflows below average.. the winter OH River river floods in 1937 saw a similar deluge..but again with below average rainfall preceding the event...which is the event that sounded the alarm for needed flood control It seems to the models are delaying any pattern change again and again...with no more rain in the system (no/trace rain next 48 hours in the forecast)the OH river at Cairo IL, the "endpoint" for all the runoff, is now expected to reach 52 feet near major flood stage(53). feb 17 and hold at that stage for a week.. 20th highest on record..(record 61 and change in 2011)

here is the link to the general OH river flooding thread they have increased outflow form Wolf creek dam to 28,000 cfs..it was 17.000 until yesterday..record outflow 40,000 lake level continues to rise 735.41 feet https://www.tva.gov/Environment/Lake-Levels/Wolf-Creek last year when they increased to these levels it made local news after a minor system this weekend the ffirehose is aimed right for the TN valley and northern gulf coast states...model trends continue to inch more NW which would mean more the OH valley gets into it...NWS Nashville ‏ Verified account @NWSNashville 11h11 hours ago More So far in 2019 Nashville has had 10.72" of rain- or 5.29" above normal. Clarksville has had 8.68" or 3.41" above normal. Crossville has had 9.00" or 2.34 above normal. Enjoy some dry weather today- while you can!

2018 was the wettest year on record for the TVA watersheds....BNA so far over 6 inches this month lake Cumberland, the start of the flood control for the Cumberland river, super high... approaching 734 feet..normal feb pool 700 feet..earlysummer pool peak 723 feet..record 751 feet in 2010 floods, under minor drought, it started at 675ish feet and rose to 703 as they cut all overflow to help down stream......I think you see my point PS at least the upgraded Wolf Creek DAM a few years ago to stop the seepage and leaks

crest at cairo now 53 feet right at major stage,..18th highest on record a couple weak systems might dump 1/4 inch NE watershed to 3/4 inch in the TN valley this weekend concern is in the 6/7 day range ...,major overrunning event possible over the SE portion of the watershed and north gulf coast states...with not too much precip north of the river however, models trends seem to be inching this NW with each run..meaning more of the watershed will get more rain

side walks skating rinks here....tress have a notice coating...car 50% ice 50% liquid the difference between this event and the other ice event is that even though temps are marginal once again (32/33). this time it is not happening in the middle of the day...and it's at night...just enough solar radiation, even during cloudy winter days , in marginal temp situation always seem to be a factor

it looks like the 72 HR forecast of 1.5 to 2.5 inches over most of the basin with isolated higher amounts over the west is panning out Flood watches are up from the mouth of the OH river all the way back into west Virginia!! 2 inches will fall over many square miles of the watershed..which actually causes more rises then scattered higher amounts (ie 5 inches here and there but nothing most areas) .again it might not be a good idea to obsess about river crests into maybe weds morning after all the observe rainfall is factored in.. I have noticed river crest change alot when dependent of future rainfall forecasts even during the event but one can bet at least "higher end moderate flooding" along the OH over the next 10 days another system later in the week will produce perhaps 2/3 of an inch basin wide on average...not an excessive amount but most of it will just add to the run off

2-3 inches near the OH river comes from the current system (next 60 hours)but yikes..

not good for you guys or the OH river..a couple members are really crazy..here is the mean

widespread 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts, still on track with this system.. flood watches out for much of the OH valley,...Crest at Cairo IL raised to 50 feet as of last night which would be a top 25 crest... I won't bother to post new crest updates until later tuesday since its all highly dependent where the heaviest rain falls ..the system Friday will be more progressive but still another inch or so.. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 647 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 HYDROLOGY THERE IS SOLID CLUSTERING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN EPS AND GEFS ON A 1.5" TO 2.5" RAIN EVENT ENDING BY NOON ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE OHIO RIVER IS RISING AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS EVENT, THIS IS OF MUCH CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN ON A RISING RIVER CREST CAN MAKE FOR VERY DIFFICULT CREST ASSESSMENTS AND POTENTIAL FOR CHAOTIC/UNPREDICTABLE RIVER RISES PARTICULARLY IF RATES ARE HEAVY. NAEFS-BASED MMEFS DATA FROM THE 09.00Z RUNS ARE CONCERNING FOR THE OHIO RIVER, ESPECIALLY AT CINCINNATI, WHERE THERE IS DECENT PROBABILITIES OF A CREST IN OR ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS IF RAINFALL MATERIALIZES AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXACT NUMBERS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN - SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE OHIO RIVER TRIBUTARIES THAT SOME OF THESE WILL COME BACK INTO FLOOD AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED QPF. IN PARTICULAR, NEAR THE OHIO RIVER - LIKE THE LITTLE MIAMI, BRUSH CREEK, HOCKING, AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT MIAMI AND SCIOTO. SOME OF THESE ARE STILL IN FLOOD AS OF THIS WRITING. SO THOSE IN FLOOD EITHER BRIEFLY DIP OUT OF FLOOD, OR STAY IN FLOOD MUCH LONGER. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JOIN A WHOLE SLEW OF OFFICES ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES TODAY - EVEN AT ADMITTEDLY SOME LONGER TIME RANGES.

not sure about the track record lately, but this would be good news after we get past the next couple of weeks

and here is the levels of the flood control lakes in IND, OH and KY http://www.lrl-wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html still rising and well above normal for this time of year as inflow outpaces ouflows as they try to store as much water as possible It was dry the months leading up the 1997 OH river floods as well the 2010 nashville floods (cumberland river) , in fact Lake cumberland started at 680ish feet and got no higher then 703 feet , with zero outflow through the event, right now it is 730 feet and rising(record 751 feet) the 2011 flood event had well above normal precip leading up to the "big one" my fear is is we continue with these "moderate" to heavy events every few days..then if an extreme 10 inch+ event occurs later could be big trouble.. anyway they have increase lake Barkley outflow to 125,000 cfs and Lake Kentucky to 157,000 (282K combo) and the lakes are steady or slowly falling,...I suspect they are trying to lower them as much as possible before the crest of the OH river reaches the rivers in a few days --------------- Really Creeksitter, From the Army Corps of Engineers: "Wolf Creek Dam, near Jamestown, Kentucky, impounds Lake Cumberland, which is the largest reservoir east of the Mississippi River and ninth largest in the U.S. At over a mile long, the 5,736 feet dam provides a total flood storage capacity of 6,089,000 acre-feet (1 acre-foot = 1 acre, 1 foot deep or 325,850 gallons). One could add all the water of all the other lakes in the Ohio River Valley System and still have room for more water." Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 AM EST Sat Feb 09 2019 Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 11 2019 - 12Z Tue Feb 12 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...Mid Mississippi into the Ohio Valley... A long wave trough over the Rockies early on Day 3 takes on a negative tilt as it crosses the Mid MS Valley late in the period. Deep moisture and marginal instability ahead of the mid level system will feed low topped convection that produces heavy to excessive rainfall. The 00z GFS appears to be too far north with its front and surface low ahead of the mid level trough, so the WPC QPF and Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) were based primarily on a blend of the 00z ECMWF (which has been consistent with the placement of the highest rainfall) and the 00z UKMET. Synoptic scale ascent ahead of the long wave trough as it tracks from the Rockies into the Mid and Upper MS valley increases as the trough takes on a negative tilt toward 12/12z. Ahead of the mid level system (and along a stationary front extending from northeast TX into TN/KY), a 40 to 50 knot low level southwest flow transports 1.25 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) from central AR into southern IN and southwest OH. Model soundings (and the 08/21z SREF) showed 100-250 J/KG of MUCAPE in the moisture plume, which should be enough to support low topped convection along and south of the front (mainly between 11/21z and 12/06z). There was a strong model signal for an axis of 2.00/3.00 inches of rainfall extending from central AR into southernmost IN and a small portion of southwest OH, with the highest amounts over far northeast AR into western KY. As the 850-300 mb mean layer wind becomes better aligned with propagation vectors (especially after 12/00z), the threat of training increases, especially across northeast AR into northwest TN and western KY. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible here, before the mid level trough becomes negative. When this occurs, and surface low pressure deepens over portions of the Mid and Upper MS Valley, a surface cold front crosses the TN and OH Valleys, allowing the low topped convection to become more progressive. While three hour flash flood guidance values have shown some recovery across the Mid MS Valley, there are still rivers in flood here, and output from the most recent National Water Model showed high streamflows continuing through 12/12z, with an increase in coverage due to the Day 3 rainfall. Two day rainfall totals of 4.00/5.00 inches are possible across portions of northeast AR, far southeast MO and northwest TN, which saw 3.00/6.00 inches of rainfall within the past week. Given the antecedent conditions, and the expected two day rainfall, a Moderate Risk was placed over the abovementioned areas (this was collaborated with WFOs LZK/MEG/PAH). A Slight Risk was extending from this area into portions of the OH Valley (including southern IN, much of the rest of KY and portions of OH). While the duration of highest rainfall rates here may not be as long as further southwest (as the cold front allows the activity to become more progressive late), three hour flash flood guidance values over these areas are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches.

the wet year last year all over has alot of the flood control lakes above average an example is Lake Cumberland in KY Wet weather has lake levels up The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is trying desperately to lower the level of Lake Cumberland. Heavy rains have pushed the water above the tree line and more rain is expected. Normally, in February, the lake would be at a winter low of about 700 feet above sea level. We've been fighting this for two months now." Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer at U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District, was talking about excess water in Lake Cumberland during this unusually wet winter. "If we got zero rainfall during the next 30 days I might get the lake level down 10 feet," said Dillingham, adding: "There is a limit to the amount of water we can let through Wolf Creek Dam." Lake Cumberland at 8 a.m. Thursday was 724.14 feet above sea level. The water has inched 1.14 feet above the tree line and the Corps was releasing 17,500 cubic feet per second through the dam. With normal rainfall, the first subtle sign of spring is a slow rise in Lake Cumberland, beginning in February at about 700 feet above sea level to 723 feet by May 15 (tree line) at the start of the recreational season. https://www.somerset-kentucky.com/news/local_news/wet-weather-has-lake-levels-up/article_8a8743fb-07d0-5644-a2cf-0f4bc326630d.html

new crest updates. ..rather large increases...again without the rainfall next week factored in yet... PAH 46.5 (increase of 4 feet) peaking in 10 days 39th highest on record (but its a already a tad behind the forecast points) Cairo 49.5 increase of 1.5 feet peaking feb19th this would be the 26th highest on record new madrid 37.5 increase of 1.5 feet 24th highest

no change to river crests, but Cairo a little ahead of forecast points Kentucky lake 354.64 up .3 outflow up to 156K cfs Lake Barkley 354.4 up .1 outflow up to 82K cfs combined outflows yesterday 186K cfs today 238K cfs increase of 52,000 cfs since the forecast for the OH isn't super high yet they can still dump alot of water, and looks like the current plan is to keep the lake level lower for future storage no chnage to rainfall outlook..heavy rains next week OH river south into tn LOU NG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2019 ..VERY WET SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH MORE RIVER FLOODING WELL...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT WITH SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST 3 DAY RAIN EVENT. QUITE FRANKLY FEELING MORE LIKE LATHER...RINSE REPEAT WITH SUCH A WET PATTERN. AFTER A 2 DAY BREAK FROM THE RAIN, SUNDAY BEGINS THE NEXT EVENT WHICH LASTS THRU TUE EVENING.

snow squalls here too....pretty heavy at times...the winds is really whipping it down the roads..... some of the returns are 25 dbzs on radar...sort of looks like LES multi bands you might see in SW MI or something per ILX radar

S IL , IND, into OH took a hit today..many flash flood warnings and some water rescues..moderate rain still training into the OH valley and will continue into the night the OH river at Paducah crest now at 42.5 next Monday and hold steady (MOD flood stage 43 feet) ....and hold about that level until feb 17th at Cairo crest increased a foot to 48 feet and stay above 47 feet (mod stage) until monday FEB 18th MS river at New Madrid crest increased a foot to 36 feet and stay above flood stage (34 ft) until feb 18th I should note some of the gauges upstream form these locations on the Wabash and OH are running above forecast points..so another adjustment higher may be needed this evening ----------- The above of course if without any more precipitation into the flood forecast.. light amounts are possible to begin Sunday and increase early next week LOU AFD LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE... COMBINATION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR MAY WORK INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES RESULTING IN A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE ON A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LOCATED IN A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ZONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS, THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS. THE LARGER STORY WOULD BE THAT THIS ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WOULD GO RIGHT INTO OUR RIVERS WHICH WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FLOODING WITH SOME RIVERS SEEING ADDITIONAL RISES INTO HIGHER FLOOD CATEGORIES.

nice slug of precip over S IL moving into IND..it's rather progressive but flash flood warnings out for S IL for some training cells..looks like 1-2 inches today for parts of the OH valley, with isolated high amounts factoring into todays rainfall ..the lower wabash, white and the OH river at Cairo (47.0 feet) are forecast to rise into Moderate flood over the next few days MS river at New madrid rise to 35 ft/(minor) some of the guages are running ahead of the forecast points form last night so I suspect they will be adjusted upward this morning lots of rain also fell on the TN valley..nashville 4 inches.. Lake levels..these lakes are connected by a canal near the dams so their levels should always be pretty equal.. Kentucky lake 354.34 up .4 feet the last 24 hours..outflow into OH river 128,000 cfs (which is typical) Lake Barkley 354.30 up .25 feet outflow into the oh RIVER 58,000 cfs (which is typical)

central TN along and north of I-40 getting trained including the Nashville area many flash flood warnings..this may have been further north toward the OH river if that front didn't sag south (like what was originally modeled) this also seems to be intercepting some of the moisture for areas further north regardless, this heavy rainfall will likely be the first of many rain events of the coming 2 weeks that puts pressure on the flood control system and how much water can be held back for the OH river inflows near Paducah

FYI: I started a thread about long term flooding in the lakes forum along the OH and MS rivers....the TN and Cumberland river are part of the OH river water shed .....so some of us are discussing the flooding threat over here

445 PM HAIL KICKAPOO 40.80N 89.75W 02/06/2019 M0.25 INCH PEORIA IL PUBLIC PEA SIZED HAIL COVERING THE ROAD DEEP ENOUGH TO SEND CARS INTO THE DITCHES. RELAYED VIA WMBD-TV MEDIA.

ECMWF looks active the next 10 days with 4 "events" and a reload in the plains at day 10 GEFS MEAN 384 HR

for reference the Tennessee Valley Authority controls the operations of the TN river and Cumberland River...which has a huge watershed most of TN and parts of Northern AL..there are many man made lakes for water storage..These were built after the OH river floods in 1937..all this water eventually makes it into Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley just east of Paducah KY... These are huge reservoirs...they cut back outflow from these two dams until after the crest on the OH river passes....this reduces the crest down stream on the OH and MS rivers...there is a smaller scale version of this in KY south of the river too as of right now KY lake is at 354 feet..which is is slightly below average this time of year..because they just did a "dump" into the OH river the past couple of weeks lowering the level several feet to make room for the next heavy rain event( now) here is an article on the lake after during the 2011 floods recent heavy rains flow downstream, water levels at Lake Barkley and Kentucky Lake are expected to reach record levels as early as this weekend. The current record is approximately 370 feet above sea level "and we believe we will break that this weekend," said Bill Peoples, spokesman for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Nashville District, which manages Lake Barkley. The Tennessee Valley Authority, which manages the adjoining Kentucky Lake, went so far as to forecast that water levels will reach approximately 374 feet next Thursday. VA said it is working with the Corps of Engineers to retain water behind Kentucky Dam to reduce significant -- possibly record -- downstream flooding anticipated on the lower Ohio and Mississippi rivers. http://archive.courierpress.com/news/record-levels-seen-for-kentucky-lake-barkley-officials-believe-current-max-will-be-broken-this-wee-e-324964771.html

models have shifted the heaviest rain south into KY and northern TN..still the OH river watershed (actual it goes into N AL via TN river) but much of the runoff can be stored in the flood control lakes....Indiana and OH have less flood control then areas south of the river... but no drought shield to absorb any incoming deluges

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 947 AM CST WED FEB 6 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1245 PM CST * AT 942 AM CST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING DUE TO RAPID BREAK-UP OF AN ICE JAM ON THE KANKAKEE RIVER. EVACUATIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MULTIPLE ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED.

although the PIA airport is at 32...just drove around the west side of the city...car temp 34.....not freezing even on my car that was sitting out...