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janetjanet998

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  1. janetjanet998
  2. janetjanet998
    huge amounts of rain expected this week over the tN valley into KY...trends are inching northwest (see 12z NAM for example) with more of this falling closer to the river itself here is the TN valley thread...with details about what they plan to do with all the water to prevent it from getting into the OH
  3. janetjanet998
    12z NAM another inch NW bump on the "tuesday night" wave 3+ inches over central KY..most of guys about an inch edit GFS too (in thru 69 hr)
  4. janetjanet998
    I think the GFS and GEFS had a NW flow for a few runs after next weekend for a bit yesterday,,but seems more flat now..and in end of the run is back tiothe same pattern
  5. janetjanet998
    Hunstville ... AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM GUIDANCE 3+ DAYS OUT, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO THE STALLING FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN. RAIN TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD 5-8", WITH ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY 10"+. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN ABNORMALLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY RETREAT AGAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE 1-2" ON TOP OF WHAT WE EXPECT THIS WEEK. CURRENT ANALOGIES BEING USED ARE THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED ON CHRISTMAS IN 2015, AND POTENTIALLY AS BAD AS THE SPRING FLOODS OF 2003.
  6. janetjanet998
    00z NAM NW with the first wave.(well second wave if you count tomorrow as the first)..max of 3.25 inches or so in southern KY thru 84 hour still 1.5 to 2.5 over much of eastern TN very little of it falls outside the OH valley watershed (aka south of TN river) and more over KY near the river itself
  7. janetjanet998
    info on the 2003 event The Major to Record Flooding of May 2003 across East Tennessee During the four day rain event (beginning at midnight on May 5th and ending at midnight on May 8th), a bull’s eye of over twelve inches of rain was reported in McMinn County, TN at both Etowah and Athens. The heaviest rains fell during the first 35 hours (midnight May 5th through 11:00 P.M. May 6th), where 11.6 and 11.1 inches fell at Etowah and Athens, respectively. Storm total rainfall of greater than six inches fell somewhere in each county south of a Sevier to Morgan County line. In the Little Tennessee River and Hiwassee River basins, greater than nine inches fell during the entire event. All of this water drained into Watts Bar and Chickamauga Lakes, which eventually flowed down to Chattanooga. https://www.weather.gov/mrx/may03flood
  8. janetjanet998
    well yesterday it was reported flows would be reduced from Kentucky lake and Barkley into the OHIO river...so far outflows from the combined dams have only dropped from a combined 323,000 cfs to 280,000 cfs which is still a huge amount they also are still releasing 177,000 from Pickwick I (was 114K 2-14) into basically the start of Kentucky Lake...and the downstream hydrography suggest they may increase it? plus another 10K from buffalo and Duck the Cumberland river into Barkley is at 74,000 bfs at Dover, so a combined 261,000 cfs plus local runoff going into Ky lake and Barkley) ...180,000 out the OH river will crest soon at Cairo at 52 feet, the 20th highest on record (61.7 2011) and hold steady for 5- 6 days before falling that is WITHOUT most of next weeks rain factored in.....which is creeping more north into more of the OH valley ,,,each run... you can bet they are heaving heated discussions on what to do with all of the water...I suspect they will store it in Kentucky and Barkley to a point until the OH river crest passes... Kentucky lake level 353.9 and slowly rising now,,,normal summer pool is 359 I think the record is 372 or something in 2011 when they stored It until the OH crest passed.. ----- lake Cumberland 736.90. looks like it crested at 736.94...with 28,100 cfs outflow ...as of yesterday they were going to increase that to 35,000 after they build flood walls (record 40K) Dale hollow, just downstream is releasing 5,000 cfs the max combined allowed release is 40K I think.... note: Nashville needs 5.55 inches to break the monthy record
  9. janetjanet998
    FLOODING THREAD SPIN OFF
  10. janetjanet998
    Wolf Creek Dam increasing releases to drawdown Lake Cumberland NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 15, 2019)– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District plans to increase releases at Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., as soon as conditions allow in an effort to drawdown the water level at Lake Cumberland. Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second, but plan to increase to 35,000 cfs as soon as conditions allow. The current elevation at Lake Cumberland is the highest observed since April 25, 1998 when the pool crested at 742.44 feet. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In 2019 inflows are averaging 33,270 cfs and the lake has risen 19 feet Wolf Creek Dam last discharged water at a rate of 35,000 cfs in March and April of 1997. The flow of record from Wolf Creek Dam is 40,000 cfs in January 1974. River View Road had not been developed at that time. https://www.dvidshub.net/news/310958/wolf-creek-dam-increasing-releases-drawdown-lake-cumberland Local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream (KY lake and Barkley into OH river) As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream. https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/
  11. janetjanet998
    Tennessee Valley Authority 53 mins · The River Forecast Center is tracking significant rainfall with numerous rounds of heavy rain beginning as early as Monday and continuing through the week. Most of the heavy rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday. We are preparing by increased releases from the tributary reservoirs like Norris, Douglas, and Cherokee to create as much storage space as possible. On the main stem Tennessee River, reservoirs are being pulled down to below winter pool to have some storage and handle local inflows. We continue to work with the US Army Corps of Engineers to help reduce flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This rain event could result in high river flood stages, especially in Alabama and below Pickwick in the Savannah to Johnsonville areas. River stage info: Chattanooga, TN: http://tva.me/XehH50lyZqL South Pittsburg, TN: http://tva.me/8XyT50lyZqK Whitesburg, AL: http://tva.me/ZM9T50lyZqP Florence, AL: http://tva.me/lpmw50lyZqN Savannah, TN: http://tva.me/Eam150lyZqO Clifton, TN: http://tva.me/7Bkb50lyZqM Perryville, TN: http://tva.me/vNt650lyZqQ
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  13. janetjanet998
    Lake Cumberland is at its highest level in 20 years..they are going to increase outflow to 35,000 cfs (record 40,000) and are building temp flood walls for protection The TVA has all major dams releasing water on the TN river to storage for the upcoming system , but this water has to go somewhere.. into the OH eventually the OH at Cairo is still expected to crest at 52 feet in a couple of days and hold study for about a week,, this would be the 20th highest on record but that is without most of next weeks rain factored in here is the problem
  14. janetjanet998
    of course this all has to go into the oH river at some point Tennessee Valley Authority ‏ Verified account @TVAnews More Up to 8" of rain is forecasted over the next week. We are releasing high flows from the large tributary dams to create as much storage as possible. All 9 dams on the main stem Tenn. River are operating at full turbine capacity and spilling excess water. 12z GFS...has the second slug into the OH valley.. then a pattern change after day 9
  15. janetjanet998
    .65 inches at BNA the past 24 hours monthly total 6.83 here is a tweet from NWS BNA a year ago today So far this month, #Nashville has measured 7.59" of rain, making this the 17th wettest February on record (as of today). The wettest February ever for #Nashville was in 1880 when a whopping 12.37" of rain fell #tnwx 2:47 PM - 17 Feb 2018 so 5.55 inches to break , looks reachable
  16. janetjanet998
    Wolf Creek Dam increasing releases to drawdown Lake Cumberland NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 15, 2019)– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District plans to increase releases at Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., as soon as conditions allow in an effort to drawdown the water level at Lake Cumberland. Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second, but plan to increase to 35,000 cfs as soon as conditions allow. In preparation for the increase, Corps of Engineers officials are working with local officials to install a “Hesco” temporary flood wall on River View Road just downstream of the dam where water backs up from the Cumberland River into Little Indian Creek and inundates this remote country road. ..... ..... The dam is a critical component to the Corps' ability to mitigate flooding in the Cumberland River Basin. With the possibility of significant rainfall next week and the availability of 65 percent of the flood control pool in the reservoir, the Corps could revisit the decision to increase discharges from the dam and the discharge plan could change. However, as downstream conditions allow, it remains a priority to release as much water as possible from Wolf Creek. Wolf Creek Dam last discharged water at a rate of 35,000 cfs in March and April of 1997. The flow of record from Wolf Creek Dam is 40,000 cfs in January 1974. River View Road had not been developed at that time. https://www.dvidshub.net/news/310958/wolf-creek-dam-increasing-releases-drawdown-lake-cumberland
  17. janetjanet998
    10 inch contour now showing up on updated WPC 7 day totals over NE AL area
  18. janetjanet998
    the 12z models seem to have ticked SE with the EURO still with the most NW path every drop of water that falls south of the TN River watershed deeper into GA/AL rather then the OH river watershed is better news i guess
  19. janetjanet998
    local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Operations Manager Mike Looney says over the past several days they’ve been pushing a lot of water through Barkley Dam. “If you put a basketball in a box, that’s about a cubic foot. So, there are 150,000 boxes with basketballs or water going through the spillway section every second,” says Looney. “What we have been doing with Kentucky and Barkley Lakes is an aggressive spilling operation moving water out of the lake in order to position the lakes where we can continue to start holding water back as the crest approaches Paducah and Cairo, Illinois.” As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream. “There’s really no such thing as flood proofing anything,” says Looney. “We can manage the risk involved with flooding, and hopefully what we intend to do is minimize the damage caused by the high water.” It’s a similar story over at Kentucky Dam. Tennessee Valley Authority spokesperson Travis Brickey says come Friday morning, they will be storing water to help reduce the impact downstream. Because of this, he says water levels at Kentucky Lake are also expected to rise above summer pool. https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/
  20. janetjanet998
    it looks it looks like the 00z run has the second slug more south sparing the OHIO valley but overlapping with the first slug ... so looks like two choices... 1) major problems over a wide area (you guys and OH valley) if the firehouse moves around 2) extreme problems over a smaller area (you guys) in the may 2010 TN floods.,.an amazing 600,000 cfs was being pumped out of the tVA watershed at Kentuckey and Barkley at one point the OH river wasn't in flood ..the outflow raised the OH river at cairo IL form something like 30 feet to 43 feet... without any rain factored in..the OH river is expected to crest there at 52 feet and hold steady for about a week, and hold above 47 feet the rest of the month.. (record is 61.7 feet in 2011) lake cumberland rise has slowed to a crawl about .01 per hour with 28,000 cfs outflow. (738..71) .I suspect it will crest today and then start falling if they hold that outflow at 28,000 cfs ) which is a high flow ....not sure they will with the rain coming in because of downstraem issues Local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Operations Manager Mike Looney says over the past several days they’ve been pushing a lot of water through Barkley Dam. “If you put a basketball in a box, that’s about a cubic foot. So, there are 150,000 boxes with basketballs or water going through the spillway section every second,” says Looney. “What we have been doing with Kentucky and Barkley Lakes is an aggressive spilling operation moving water out of the lake in order to position the lakes where we can continue to start holding water back as the crest approaches Paducah and Cairo, Illinois.” As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream. “There’s really no such thing as flood proofing anything,” says Looney. “We can manage the risk involved with flooding, and hopefully what we intend to do is minimize the damage caused by the high water.” It’s a similar story over at Kentucky Dam. Tennessee Valley Authority spokesperson Travis Brickey says come Friday morning, they will be storing water to help reduce the impact downstream. Because of this, he says water levels at Kentucky Lake are also expected to rise above summer pool. https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/
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  22. janetjanet998
    not looking good..trends are more NW again...instead of TN valley and Northern gulf coast states ...now trending towards TN and OH valley looks the firehouse starts south about day 5 and works its way north..I suspect convection might slow the north push so perhaps the SE older model runs may be correct but the wrong reasons? the Euro is more NW then the GFS in the LATER PART OF 10 day range with surface features...anyone have the precip map for the EURO yikes GFS op run
  23. janetjanet998
    736.25 feet and rising despite 30,000 cfs outflow Rising Water Level At Lake Cumberland Worries Residents PULASKI COUNTY, Ky. (LEX 18)– With so much rain this winter, Lake Cumberland is reaching stunning levels. Some people who live in Burnside tell LEX 18 they haven’t seen the water this high since 1984. One couple says they were speechless when they came to the General Burnside Island boat ramp. They say they were at the boat ramp two weeks ago and the water was past the poles. At the time, they thought it was interesting, but now they say the water level has gotten worrisome. “It seems like it rains every other day, and then when it does rain, it’s an inch, inch and a half, two inches of rain,” said Brad and Kara Naugle. “As big as this lake is, it’s 1,200 mile shoreline, and it comes up this high, it’s ridiculous.” Residents say they worry even more about the water level, when they consider that rainy season usually doesn’t kick in until April. https://lex18.com/news/covering-kentucky/2019/02/14/rising-water-level-at-lake-cumberland-worries-residents/
  24. janetjanet998
    KLOU about early next week WHILE THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, THE NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA ARE A BIT CONCERNING. SHOULD THE SE RIDGE BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST, WE COULD SEE THIS HEAVY QPF AXIS SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE WE SIMPLY DO NOT NEED IT.
  25. janetjanet998
    OMERSET, Ky. (Feb. 13, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is temporarily closing Lake Cumberland’s Waitsboro Recreation Area for public safety. Lake Cumberland Park Ranger Judy Daulton said the parking lot and boat ramp are mostly submerged and the boat ramp’s lanes are not visible, making it unsafe to keep the recreation area open until the water recedes. “Under the current circumstances, we just don’t want anyone to get hurt,” Daulton said. “This is why we are closing the recreation area until the situation improves.” Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said the lake elevation as of noon today is 735.4 feet, which is 32 feet higher than the historical median for mid-February. Wolf Creek Dam is discharging water at a rate of 30,000 cubic feet per second but more rainfall is in the forecast for this weekend into next week. This could potentially make the lake rise even higher. Wolf Creek Dam provides flood control benefits for communities downstream. The water management plan designates Celina, Tenn., as the downstream control point. The flow at Celina, which is made up of discharges from Wolf Creek Dam and Dale Hollow Dam as well as the 583 square miles of uncontrolled watershed below the dams, is maintained at or below 40,000 cfs. “The project is operated to provide flood control benefits for downstream,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Water Management Section. “We will continue releasing as much water as downstream conditions allow in an effort to regain storage in the reservoir and lower the elevation as quickly as possible.” Lake Cumberland hasn't exceeded elevation 740 since it crested at 742.4 in April 1998. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984.
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