janetjanet998

it looks like Corps is finally seeing what I was pointing out and have increased outflows from the Lake Cumberland to 33K..will they keep it up as the system moves in though? On the Friday media report they said they will only increase to 35,000 cfs when "conditions allow" to help downstream flooding....that means they wouldn't do it with heavy rains in the forecast I wonder what changed..mmmmmmm..believe me that they don't want this water going down the river at this point unless they have too for a reason 2/21/2019 noon 746.35 29,380 +.15 2/21/2019 1 PM 746.50 30,700. +.15 2/21/2019 2 PM 746.65 33,060. +.15 this should have been done earlier IMO..Friday they said it would take 48 hours to build a flood wall....so Monday or Tuesday they should have been ready to increase but they dropped it to 25K instead

18z NAM best case for Cumberland as it keep the train south(current obs and short range models agree) and north with the last part ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TN...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL... 21z update... After collaborating with WFOs JAN/MEG/OHX/HUN, a High Risk was assigned to portions of south central TN, northeast MS and far northern Alabama for Day 2. The main reason for the upgrade is the saturated antecedent conditions across these areas. In many spots, rivers are in flood, and the most recent National Water Model showed a large area of very high streamflows from previous activity. The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant impacts. As surface low pressure tracks from the TX Panhandle into the Mid MS Valley, a 35/45 knot low level southwest flow transports 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) and 500 J/KG of MUCAPE along a frontal boundary moving north across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. The combination of moisture and instability could result in convection with hourly rainfall rates in excess of 1.00 (as seen in the 12z NAM CONUS Nest and the 12z WRF ARW) over the aforementioned areas. This would be sufficient to cause significant flooding issues where storms training (which is possible, given that the 850-300 mb mean wind becomes better aligned with the propagation vectors). Hayes

Crest forecast at Cairo increased to 55 feet..9th highest on reccord but the real interesting stuff may be happening at Lake cumberland see here (and older post here for reference info)

if that train sets up the typical WSW to ENE fashion then I assume the cumberland watershed above(SE of the lake) the lake gets that too..or at least a toned down version

well I assumed the rate of rise would level off by now and it looked like that was happening. as the rate fell to .14 feet per hr this morning for a few hours..but the last few hours rate is increasing again( not on TVA site yet but will be soon) It could be the crest wave off the main stem is hitting the lake and this is more then the decline in other inflows.. another wild card is Laruel River lake...this is a dammed up area for Flood control with no spillway in the watershed ..I have seen You-tube videos of it overflowing in the past but can't find any info on its current status...did it just start to overflow? has it been all along? not yet? I'm not sure if TVA is legally bind to keep the combined runoff flows from Wolf Creek, Dale Hollow and the 500 sq miles of local runoff maxed 40.000 cfs..the articles I found just implies that is procedure but as I pointed out they are wasting time and water but not moving outflow up to 35,000 now...as they planned last friday

all going into the lake of course...looks like the river at williamaburg just upstream from that has peaked for now..but a second peak similar to the one today is in the forecast plots...it will go even higher if training happens again .lots of replies on facebook on that post...I think as time goes on more and more people may question if the lake will over flow...amd there will be hype and panic on social media even it is does all that MAY happen is it will spill over a little and really have no more outflow(since by then inflow should be much lower then now) then it does now assuming the shut the gates and just let it go? but it is going to be a battle all spring to get the flood control storage back in the upper Cumberland basin for any huge spring events 2/21/2019 9 AM 745.92 26,040 +.25 2/21/2019 10 AM 746.05 26,130 +.13 A slight uptick in outflow,(about 500 since this morning),this is what happened when it increased to 29K before but just a drop i the bucket to what is needed edit: outflow increased again 2/21/2019 11 AM 746.20 +.15 28,420

Time for for some math ( in a hurry I made have made errors) 2/21/2019 4 AM CST 745.00 25,850 2/21/2019 5 AM CST 745.18 25,940 +.18 2/21/2019 6 AM CST 745.36 25,940 +.18 the lake has risen an average of .18 feet per hour ending at 4am and amazing 4.32 feet..the max rolling 24 period will be higher then that even The corps has a major problem..Dale Hollow 655.25. just downstream, has zero outflow right now...and rising fast too.. up almost 2.95 feet on 24 hours..it overflows at 661 feet..came within inches in a few times in the past..outflow of 5,000 keeps the lake steady it seems,,,but that is 5000 that takes away from Wolf Creek outflow If the Cumberland lake averages .14 an hr rise the next 24 hrs 4 am-4am from that 745 level .14 rise per hour ending 10z Friday that's 748.36 no more rain .12 average rise the next 24 hours 751.24 mod-heavy rains widepread training? .16 the next 24 hours 755.08 record smashed light rain to scattered heavy stuff with the line of storms .14 next 24 hours 758.04 no more rain but still rising fast from old rain .04 per hour the next 24 hours 759.4 no rain .02 per hour the next 24 hours 759.88 no rain .01 per hour the next 24 hours 760.12 lake overspills here 10z thursday Feb 28th no rain now some days like tommrow I may have over estimated rises, and some days underestimated ..but you can take away some one day but add it to the next set of numbets. etc etc ...the lake may still be rising at .08 inch per hour or so before the next batch of rain starts adding to it too The above assumes the basin gets trained again..12z NAM (usually NW) keeps that just SE of the basin 2/21/2019 7 AM 745.50 25,940 +.14 2/21/2019 8 AM 745.65 25,940 +.15

WOW...only 8 feet from the record....still climbing fast....hopefully the train will stay south and the last part north....the GFS is disturbing with 2-3+ inches at 760 it spills over the top of the spillway...(again may not get there this time but later in the spring?) .this isn't Oroville where it spills on to a hillside and erodes it away but still.....there will be no flood control at that point.. if it is like any other situation there is a control plan that you do X, Y, and Z when A, B and C happens the control plan likely says no more then X amount of outflow when there is so many inches of future predicted rains for downstream flood control... that is likely why they dropped outflows to 25K from 29K and have delayed the increase to 35K they mentioned last Friday... but every hour of these lower outflows means an extra hour of 5-10 or even 15K cfs(if they eventually increase to the record 40K) that they will have to make up in the future 2/20/2019 6 PM 742.86 25,560. +.26 2/20/2019 7 PM 743.07 25,560. +.21 2/20/2019 8 PM 743.29 25,650. +.22 2/20/2019 9 PM 743.49 25,740 +.2 2/20/2019 10 PM 743.73 25,660. +.24

following Oroville , DWR said that the peak inflows, or lake level rises, into a lake occur a few hours after peak rainfall rates...then the rate of rise starts to decline without any more rain but .22 feet per hour for a lake the size of Cumberland is crazy, especially at these high levels since it takes more volume of water to raise it per foot the higher it is since the lake is shaped like the letter V the 6pm TVA data is flawed but the NWS river graph hints that may be even higher then a .22 rise between 5 and 6 2/20/2019 3 PM 742.18 25,420. +.18 2/20/2019 4 PM 742.38 25,510 +.20 2/20/2019 5 PM 742.60. 25,470. +.22

I think Corps and river forecast center uses the WPC rainfall maps....if you get training like happened this morning it throws it into chaos, any press releases or forecast released that day are based on the lower general WPC numbers released at 3am...that is why sometimes these people are behind the curve... for example ...look at the Cumberland river level forecast upstream of the lake...even though they were updated this afternoon...they are getting blown away.... Wolf creek Dam was repaired...by putting in a very deep cut off wall to stop seepage and leaking out of the earth part....but at least those leaks and seepage relieved pressure...so it will be interesting to see what happens since the pressure has to go somewhere else... Lewisville Dam near Dallas( big trouble there a few years ago). I know they actually dig pressure release wells...but thats a different set up...(no bedrock there just dirt) I have no idea what will happen if the entire watershed get 5 inches....it will be a nowcast thing to see where training sets up ..again most of the water shed is SE of the lake ..even a few miles north of the actual lake is out of the water shed

I didn't see the Euro map mentioned ,,,but 5 more inches from N MS to Jackson KY sounds like Lake Cumberland watershed more info on the latest With the additional rainfall expected this week, reaching elevation 750 is possible. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In the history of Wolf Creek Dam, which spans back to 1950, elevation 745 has been exceeded twice – 747.12 in April 1962 and the pool of record. “This winter has been an unprecedented event in that we continue to see rainfall events and have not had enough consecutive dry days to regain storage in the reservoir, nor have downstream conditions been conducive to increasing discharges from the dam,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Nashville District Water Management Section. “It remains a priority for the Nashville District to lower Lake Cumberland and regain the flood control storage in the reservoir as soon as downstream conditions allow.” Dillingham said the Nashville District has made preparations downstream to allow releases from Lake Wolf Creek Dam, which will likely be larger than have been observed in several decades. “Releases from the reservoir will be increased and we plan to lower the reservoir as soon as possible,” Dillingham added. “However, considering March and April are historically the highest precipitation months, it could take several months before Lake Cumberland returns to a seasonal elevation.” https://milfeed.com/2019/02/20/corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/

you can see these wet areas in old youtube videos too...and even when the lake is low..the concrete is stained...similar to if your ceiling ever leaked then dried Nashville District ‏ Verified account @NashvilleCorps Follow Follow @NashvilleCorpsjavascript:void('8') More #NashvilleCorps dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in #Jamestown #Kentucky is in danger of imminent failure https://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/1762058/nr-19-006-corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/ … #WaterManagement #DamSafety #USACE #LakeCumberland NR 19-006: Corps of Engineers dispels Wolf Creek Dam safety rumors NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 20, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., is in danger of imminent failure. A local radio station commentator put out false information this morning that Wolf Creek Dam could fail at any time and local residents downstream needed to formulate an evacuation plan. “This is completely false,” said Kyle Hayworth, Dam Safety Program Manager with the Nashville District. “The dam is not failing. There have been no signs of distress with the project, and our dam safety staff has been and will continue to monitor all of the Cumberland River Basin dams throughout this high-water event.” The Corps of Engineers is also aware of a social media video making its rounds that shows water leaking from the concrete face of the dam, and is addressing similar public fears, letting people know there is no reason for alarm. “The water observed seeping out of the concrete is at a joint where drainage systems relieve internal pressures inside the dam,” said Brad Long, acting chief of the Nashville District’s Civil Design Branch. “It is not a dam safety concern. It will likely continue until the pool elevation returns to normal levels.” The Nashville District is posting the very latest updates on its website and on Lake Cumberland’s Facebook page. The public is highly encouraged to seek out these resources for reliable information about water management, operations at the dam, and impacts around the lake.

it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018, has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps? better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows... record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,, so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring? they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned /20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330 2/20/2019 1 PM 741.80 25,330 2/20/2019 2 PM 742.00 25,420

SOMERSET Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years. The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet. Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps. https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html

Cairo crest forecast 54.5 11th all time Paducah 51.5 8th

Cairo crest forecast 54.5 11th all time Paducah 51.5 8th

still no updated crest numbers for the OH Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin 10 feet from the record 2/20/2019 9 AM 741.06 25,150 2/20/2019 10 AM 741.26 25,240 2/20/2019 11 AM 741.42 25,240 2/20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330

Lake cumberland stats (last column outflow) ..getting trained now 10.8 feet from record high,,,only the 8th time above 740 feet 2/20/2019 6 AM 740.75 25,060 2/20/2019 7 AM 740.84 25,060 2/20/2019 8 AM 740.94 25,060

12z NAM hits them with another train tommrow night/friday too..

the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like lake cumberland rising rapidly now 1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now flash flood warnings for nashville

1.4 at KCHA so far 2.24 KHSV there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river 00z NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location)

they have cut back on flows from Cumberland. now down to 25,000 cfs from 29K...will be interesting to see if they increase again once the first slug of precip passes lake level as of 4pm 740.22. for some reason the river gauge on the NWS site is below the TVA gauge ...the TVA page updates in batches and is delayed but you can see the 15 min rises on the NWS river gauge in real time (hr delay) under tabular data not much news out of TVA or the media about the lake level....internet rumblings and rumors last weekend said the Corp expects tto hit 745...but that was before the higher then expected rain that fell over the weekend I can tell you it its going to go higher then 745....epsecially if any training sets up over the watershed.. DWR( CA version of TVA) was always behind the curve on Dduring Oroville and said it wouldn't go over the emergency spillway when it was obvious it was.. DWR calculates inflow into their lakes but taking the known out flow and the change in lake level per hour using a known chart....TVA doesn't do that to at least doesn't makes it public

Lake Cumberland 740.08 and still rising without any new rain I hope they reset the radars total storm totals after the bright banding is over..I forsee people on social media sites pointed out the inflated amounts flash flood warnings north central MS.... for some reason they didn't increase the OH river crests today/// it's nowcast time....I suspect the front will get hung up more then modeled KMSL already over 3/4 on an inch already

12z models so far keep the training storms along and west of the MS river out of the TVA system the first event,,but NAMS sometimes too far NW NOTE: radars will likely be bright branded at the beginning of this event so precip amounts will be overdone the further you get from the radar site EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 948 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 1500 UTC UPDATE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. ORAVEC ...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS BETWEEN THE ARKLATEX AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY... LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY... THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE SURGING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ON AN 850 MB JET OF 50-70 KTS, WHICH ADVECTS A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5-1.75" NORTH ACROSS LA INTO SOUTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT MS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASCENT IS AIDED BY INCREASING DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THE 18Z & 00Z GFS GUIDANCE, INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) ECLIPSES 1000 KG/(M*S), WITH ITS NARROWNESS INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME QUALIFIES AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS CELL TRAINING WITH TIME. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RISES TO 60-80 KNOTS. MESOCYCLONES ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE INCREASINGLY FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A COLD TROUGH SQUALL LINE ONCE THE 850 HPA FLOW STARTS TO VEER TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE SURFACE LOW'S WARM SECTOR, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS, WHERE A LESSER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK HAS BEEN INDICATED. A TOTAL OF 3-4" APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 5-6" RANGE POSSIBLE PER THE MODEST SIGNAL SEEN IN THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. IN NORTHERN LA, NORTHERN MS, EASTERN AR, AND TN, HOURLY TOTALS IN THE 1-2" RANGE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST (DESPITE THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATING LOWER). THIS, ALONG WITH TWO WEEK PRECIPITATION OF 300-500% OF AVERAGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR, TN, KY, AND THE OH VALLEY RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM CONTINUITY WITH COSMETIC CHANGES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE QPF IN GENERAL WITH THE 00Z NAM THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST -- AS USUAL -- WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN REGIONAL, 00Z ECMWF TO SOME DEGREE, AND 18/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF REFORECAST WERE MORE EASTWARD. WHEN ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONCERNING WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WERE EXPECTED, THIS BROADENED THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT FROM CONTINUITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND QPF REFORECAST. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO TN WITH TIME, WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST HOURLY RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, RAINFALL SHOULD BE OF LONGER DURATION DUE TO MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH HOURLY TOTALS CLOSER TO THE 0.5" RANGE SO DID NOT ALLOW THE MODERATE RISK AREA TO SHIFT VERY FAR INTO KY. COORDINATED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER FORECASTER TO ATTEMPT TO DELIMIT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS. ROTH DAY 2 VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY MOTNING... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIFNALL FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ..SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHOULD BE ON-GOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD, AIDED BY A WELL DEFINED MOSITURE PLUME COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...GOOD MID-LEVEL FORCING AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. MAINTAINED THE ON-GOING MODERATE RISK AREA IN PARTS OF ALABAMA WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ON DAY 1, WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 2 INCHES. THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT REFLECTS THE HIGHER GROUND MOISTURE CONTENT AND REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE MODERATE RISK REMAINED WHERE OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF OCCURS, BUT THE INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FURTHER SOUTH IN BOTH MS/AL LEADS TO ONLY A SLIGHT RISK DESPITE SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS TO NORTHERN AL. LATER UPDATES MAY BE MADE AS RAINFALL TOTALS ADJUST, BUT ALSO CHANGES IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO PRIOR RAINS OCCURRING BETWEEN NOW AND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. BANN DAY 3 VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 - 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY... ..SOUTHERN U.S. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MORE MOISTURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH MAXIMUM VALUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES EARLY IN THE EVENT AND A FEED OF COOLER/DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE WANING EARLY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWED DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT TAKES TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE AFTER 22/00Z WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300K TO 310K LEVELS INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER LA/AR/MS RECOVER AND SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY 22/12Z. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE WAS SOME DEBATE OVER THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE (BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT) TO REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA DESPITE THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE CAN STILL BE MADE IF NEEDED. SINCE THE NEXT PHASE OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND, REFER TO FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS PREPARED BY THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.