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reissued BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 124 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE AND KNOX COUNTY TENNESSEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 430 PM EST. * AT 122 PM EST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STRONGLY SUGGESTS MOTORIST LIMIT TRAVEL AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. MANY ROADWAYS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL REQUIRE SEVERAL HOURS FOR WATERS TO RECEDE AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOX COUNTY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

alot of times these things start to weaken about this time of day of the LLJ weakens and the focus become surface based activity...but in this case the over all system is strengthening so it may cancel that out If some places in Knox county already have 5 inches...I think a shot at 10 inches isn't out of the question by days end if that train sets up over them

meanwhile ( at least no training there) AMESTOWN, Ky. (WKYT) – A press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that, with Lake Cumberland levels rising, the Wolf Creek Dam will step up releases to historic levels, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas downstream. According to the release, Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at 36,200 cubic feet per second (cfs.) Now, engineers plan to increase discharge to 40,000 cfs as early as Sunday, and up to 45,000 cfs 48 hours after that. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cfs, back in January of 1974.

airport up to 3.30..( .35 last hr)...they may be just to far south to avoid the incoming train?

was there an emergency toned out alert on on the EBS?? or not that is why the other poster said he has never seen and Areal Flood Warning go straight to a PDS flash flood warning..there should have been a "normal" flash flood warning issued in between ...you know when cars were getting strandard and fire trucks sinking anyway stay safe

no there was only an flood warning...not a flash flood warning..a don't thunk an Areal Flood Warning is "toned" out usually there is a flash flood warning issued ...then when things get extreme a "Flash flood emergency"

a flash flood warning should have been issued long ago

another .35 last HR at airport.. 2.95 total

Don't think TVA, or anybody for that matter, expected this..the levels of the TN river are spiking up much faster then the gradual increase over the next few days I can only imagine what this is doing the the tributary lakes This is what i was cocerned with for Lake cumberland today...but they are only getting sideswiped

Knoxville Highest rainfall total in one day 6.14"July 16, 1917 as luck would have it timing wise........ it started raining hard at midnight..and the ending frontal storms should hit about midnight 2.60 as of 9am (.42 last hr)

Lake cumberland rise lake increasing....steadty moderate rains...no change to outflow up 1.37 feet or .057/hr last 24 hours ending at 4am 2.4 feet from record...should break late this evening 2/23/2019 3 AM 749.00 34,360 +.05 2/23/2019 4 AM 749.08 34,460 +.08 2/23/2019 5 AM 749.21 34,520 +.13 2/23/2019 6 AM 749.32 34,540 +.11

Heavy steady (not not excessive rates yet) rains the past 6 hours. 2.17 inches time and per hr rainfall 23 07:53 0.42 23 06:53 0.38 23 05:53 0.40 23 04:53 0.27 23 03:53 0.33 23 02:53 0.26 23 01:53 0.11

The little Tallahachie river at Elta MS ( out of TVA area), is now above record stage... 30.54 and still climbing..records go back to at least 1973 29 The post office and businesses and homes in the low lying area near the river in New Albany are flooded. Several homes along County Highway 46 are flooded. Flood water is covering County Highways 46 and 47. flood waters are approaching the level of Highway 355 near Etta

23Z HRRR very is scary for central and SW TN including nashville....the current training band of light-moderate rain turns into training storms

TN River at Savannah forecast crest now 393.81. which would be 3rd all time 1) 401.20 ft on 03/21/1897 (2) 396.11 ft on 03/20/1973 (3) 392.70 ft on 01/02/1927 (4) 392.42 ft on 02/06/1957 (5) 392.29 ft on 02/16/1948 (6) 391.61 ft on 01/13/1946 (7) 390.70 ft on 05/12/2003 (8) 390.42 ft on 12/12/2004 (9) 389.05 ft on 04/10/1936 (10) 389.00 ft on 01/14/1974 392 Second floor of houses on stilts is flooding all along the river. North end of Dorthy Lane at Campsite is beginning to flood. Many houses are flooded at Campsite.

Top 5 crest now expected at Cairo and Paducah on the OHIO 56.5 cario and 53.5 at Paducah this is all depended if the heavy rain one make it more north I think...if not they will be lower they are dumping huge amounts out of the Kentucky Lake and Barkley but they have no choice... 420,000 cfs!! ---------------------------------------- Lake Cumberland 2/22/2019 2 PM 748.20 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 3 PM 748.26 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 4 PM 748.30 36,220. +.04

Top 5 crest now expected at Cairo and Paducah 56.5 cario and 53.5 at Paducah this is all depended if the heavy rain one make it more north I think...if not they will be lower they are dumping huge amounts out of the Kentucky Lake and Barkley but they have no choice

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 212 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019 ...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING... DISCUSSION LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL MS AND AL, IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-STATE AT THIS HOUR. AS IT APPROACHES THE AL-TN STATE LINE THIS EVENING, ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SPUR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. PW VALUES THAT ARE UNHEARD OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE AND IT'S DURING THIS TIME, WHEN WE START TO SEE SOME WARM FRONT-INDUCED CONVECTION BEGIN, THAT IS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. THE PROBLEM IS, IT'S GOING TO BE DURING HOURS OF DARKNESS. THIS PRESENTS ADDED ISSUES WHEN DEALING WITH FLASH FLOODING: YOU CAN'T SEE IT COMING. THE AREA(S) OF CONCERN HAVE NOT CHANGED. THOSE SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT DUE TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH: IF YOU DON'T HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE ALREADY, NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY FLOODED OR YOU KNOW IT CAN FLOOD QUICKLY, HAVE A PLACE OF HIGHER GROUND WHERE YOU CAN GO IN A HURRY TO ESCAPE RISING FLOOD WATERS. PLAN, THEN ACT. DON'T REACT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE BEFORE THE NOON HOUR TOMORROW. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST: HOW MUCH OF A BREAK CAN WE GET? IS THERE ANY CHANCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS? AND EVEN IF WE DON'T SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, WILL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION START EARLY ENOUGH AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW EVENING? BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE WAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING 500-800 J/KG INTO AREAS OF MIDDLE TN SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. THIS IS TROUBLESOME BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT WILL BE AROUND. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS HAVE QUITE THE CURVE IN THEM IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT IF WE DON'T REALIZE THE INSTABILITY, WE'RE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A BROKEN QLCS THAT WILL HAVE EMBEDDED ROTATION. ALL OF THAT SAID, HERE'S THE KICKER: WE DON'T NEED WINDS OF 60-70 MPH TO HAVE PROBLEMS TOMORROW EVENING. AS WET AS THE GROUND IS AND WILL BE, WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO TOPPLE TREES JUST AS EASY. SO, NO MATTER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, IF WE DO SEE ANY WINDS TOMORROW EVENING, IT'LL LIKELY BE A LONG NIGHT. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO DEW POINTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL. IF THEY START CREEPING TOWARDS 55-60 DEGREES, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THAT MUCH GREATER HERE IN MIDDLE TN. HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS: MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AT LEAST 3 DRY DAYS AFTER THIS IS ALL OVER. I'M GOING TO CARRY VERY SMALL POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON AS THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR GROUND WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. IF THE EURO VERIFIES, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 5+ DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. FINGERS CROSSED...

HRRR, RAP and 18z NAM products lift the WF north of you without much rain really...everything NW,,,likely too far NW 18z NAMnest destroys the TN/KY state line..NAM central KY 18z RAP clueless

BNA MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS STILL SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS FALLING THIS MORNING. TO THIS POINT, WE'VE BEEN SPARED ANY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN BY THE FACT THAT WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS STILL WAY DOWN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS KEEPING THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE OUR BIGGEST ENEMY IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE IT MEANS RAIN RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WHAT IS 0.5-1.0 IN/HR (WHICH IS CLOSE TO MANAGEABLE) TO 1.0-2.0 IN/HR OR MORE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE. THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ONLY GOING TO SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IN THE MEANTIME, IF ANY CONVECTION STARTS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT QUICKER. THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE IT ALREADY, PLEASE DEVELOP A PLAN SO THAT YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES HAVE HIGHER GROUND TO RETREAT TO IF FLASH FLOODING BEGINS IN YOUR AREA.

lake Cumberland getting a train of Moderate rain now...models increase the rates overnight in this band (or reform it),,location is the only question...flood warnings for the eastern part of the watershed from rainfall this morning.. (up to an inch) 2/22/2019 8 AM 747.88 35,960 +.04 2/22/2019 9 AM 747.98 35,960 +.10 2/22/2019 10 AM 748.00 35,960 +.02 2/22/2019 11 AM 748.05 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 noon 748.10 35,960 +.05

so far no heavy rain Current State of Lake Cumberland FEBRUARY 22, 2019 LEAVE A COMMENT The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to monitor stream conditions throughout the Cumberland River Basin and to manage the release of water from its 10 dams, including Wolf Creek Dam on Lake Cumberland, as heavy rain continues to impact the region this week.The basin has received two to five inches of rain over the past four days, four to seven inches of rain over the past seven days, and seven to 12 inches of rain over the past month. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for three to four inches of rainfall in the next 72 hours. At this time, long-term forecasts are more positive with little precipitation expected beyond the next 72 hours. Lake Cumberland’s elevation is was over 746 at the last Corps report late Thursday afternoon. The flood control pool extends from elevation 723 to 760 and is currently 60 percent full. The Corps says the lake will continue to rise for the next several days ahead of the rainfall as inflows currently exceed outflows. Current discharge at the dam is now 35,000 cfs. The pool of record is 751.69 back in 1984. Many of the roadways leading to the lake have been closed off and the public is urged to be cautious when approaching these areas. ---------------------------- Lake Cumberland hits second-highest elevation in history and is expected to keep rising The water elevation at Lake Cumberland has hit a level seen only three times since Wolf Creek Dam was finished nearly 70 years ago, and is approaching a record with continued rain expected. The level as of 8 a.m. Friday was 747.84 feet above sea level, according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers. The only other times the lake level has topped 745 feet were in April 1962, when it hit 747.12, and in May 1984, when it was 751.69, the record. Under typical conditions, the lake fills to a level of 700 feet to 723 feet by mid-May.

seems hr focus is a little more west for now EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 957 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019 ...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL AND TN... 15Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AXIS AND METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT HIGH RISK. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN GOES-16, REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AND SURFACE/VWP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME EASTERN TX. HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND ARW/ARW2/NMMB ALSO INDICATE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY TRAINING INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT IN SE AR AND N MS. WHILE, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DRIER OVER E TX, N LA, SW AR, THIS GROWING QPF SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX (AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) SUPPORT A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE TX/LA BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH RISK WAS PULLED WESTWARD, AS WELL, CLIPPING SE AR, WHERE THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE MODERATE RISK WAS PULLED BACK TO THE

they have increased outflow at Wolf Creek up to 39,000 at one point. (all time record 40K)...this has slowed the rise and so far no heavy rain is helping too lake up another 2.71 feet the past 24 hours an average of .0112 per hour..at 4am the lake is .67 feet behind my "overflow post" and not rising the .12 per hour for today....so things looking better...I think they got more aggressive with the outflows when crunching numbers...they implied a week ago ago they had plenty of flood storage and wouldn't increase to 35.000 until it stopped raining...so something changed 2/22/2019 1 AM 747.52 35,860 2/22/2019 2 AM 747.58 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 3 AM 747.65 39,860 +.07 2/22/2019 4 AM 747.71 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 5 AM 747.76 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 6 AM 747.81 35,960 +.05

12z and 18z NAM products= bad 00z = "hold my beer" all depends on placement ..and nowcasting.....NAM with a stripe of 6- 7 inches from Northern MS into TN ..the odd part is it has very little precip in that area thru 06z ..yet heavy rain there now Namnest actually keeps a lot of the max precip south and west of the TVA watershed (west Tn and N MS) no update from TVA about Cumberland since 2..but NWS river data suggest rate of rise slowing to perhaps .1 an hour?