janetjanet998

AFAYETTE AR-BOSSIER LA- 1111 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISHES... AT 1055 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED WITH THIS STORM NEAR HOSSTON. A SECOND AREA OF ROTATION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF PLAIN DEALING, OR 17 MILES WEST OF SPRINGHILL, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12... VALID 091659Z - 091900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND PARTS OF THE SEVERE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST LA ALONG A COLD FRONT. WHILE MIXED STORM MODES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PERIODIC STRONG ROTATION. GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH OVER 500 M2/S2 AND AREAS OF HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO WINDS VEERING WITH A TORNADO, HAIL, OR SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. ----- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 300 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EMERGED WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.

@NWSShreveport Follow Follow @NWSShreveport More Tornado reported on Mira Myrtis Road west of Interstate 49. Moving east at 45 mph. Take care now!

strong rotation on the AR storm near KEO

STORMS BREAKING UP INTO DISCRETE CELLS IN CENTRAL AR ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST. * AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

cells rotating in the ARLATX REGION NOW ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST. * AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

Little Rock ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 954 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 1030 AM CST. * AT 954 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEST LITTLE ROCK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091545Z - 091815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AR AND NOW INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY, WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK, A LINE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER AR, AND ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX, MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, BUT EXCESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT MAY MITIGATE THIS. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LINE WILL MOVE SLOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN AR INTO MS, BUT HERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER, AND HODOGRAPHS WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS.

The HRRR almost looks like it wants to break the main line up into cells later..... also the storms n AR may hold the Warm front (or secondary warm front) up and keep winds backed over TN plus any cells that develop ahead of line..(IE the ones near Memphis)

the event will be over multple subforms ..one of the drawbacks of subforms is that seere weather outbreaks often cover multiple subforms and it chaotic to keep track of everything I started an "event thread" here

instead of small dead threads in multiple subforms....since the main focus is the mid south so I started this "event" thread here... AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. DAMAGING GUSTS, TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ALL ARE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS A PROGRESSIVE, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CA AND PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST-CENTRAL TX -- WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY 00Z TO NEAR AN AXIS FROM JMS-CID-STL-JBR. BY 12Z, A CLOSED 500-MB LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWEST LIMB OF THE TROUGH, OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI, NEARLY STACKED WITH AN OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI. AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS, WITH OCCLUDED FRONT DIFFUSELY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-CENTRAL OK, AND COLD FRONT ARCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX, OVERTAKING A PRE-EXISTING DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK, SOUTH-CENTRAL AR, TO EXTREME NORTHERN MS NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN IA IN OCCLUDED FORM AROUND 00Z, THEN PROCEED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z TO NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARC FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN ACROSS EASTERN TN TO THE MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 00Z. BY 12Z, THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL MS, TO NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST. THE TX SEGMENT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY THEN. MEANWHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, WITH POOR DEFINITION IN AND NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION. ..NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO OZARKS AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS A BELT OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL OZARKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OK TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST TX. FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY, REFER TO SPC WATCHES AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FROM THERE EASTWARD. THE INITIAL BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LA/MS, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MESSY, MIXED MODES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY -- MAINLY LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THIS CONVECTION WILL OFFER A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SPORADIC HAIL, AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE IN ITS INFLOW REGION, WHILE MARGINAL ON THE BUOYANCY SIDE, WILL EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR. A FEW SHORTER-TERM/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE TEMPORARY WEAKENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE MID-SOUTH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN EARLY AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY, BEFORE AGAIN STRENGTHENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND REMAINING SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL IS NEITHER STRONG NOR LARGE ENOUGH TO DELINEATE ANY DIFFERENCES IN BROADER-SCALE AREAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. FARTHER EAST, AS BUOYANCY INCREASES SOMEWHAT, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY BENEATH A 60-80-KT LLJ, ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH-END SRH FOR NON-TROPICAL SYSTEMS (E.G., EFFECTIVE SRH 500-900 J/KG AND 0-1-KM LAYER SRH VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 500 J/KG) -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, THOUGH CONCERNS OVER STORM MODE CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE THREAT BEYOND LEVELS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. THE WARM SECTOR WILL NARROW AND BECOME MORE PRECIP-CONTAMINATED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT FROM THE MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, BUT STILL SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH CAPE (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IN POCKETS) TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS THERE. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL START TO OUTPACE THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WHILE DEEP-LAYER LIFT DIMINISHES IN THE SOUTH WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE REGION. MEANWHILE, DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING WILL REDUCE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY GRADUALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, EVEN AMIDST CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS SUCH, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECLINE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD. ..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/09/2019

5 inch contours back on 7 day click for this mornings update The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.

lake cumberland 749.65 feet down .95 or .04/hr (inflow increased form rain slowed the fall) if the lake falls 1.2 ft per day we will be at 746 at 10z friday near the start of the "wet period" Center hill dam (the other big pool) also still very full and the rains have also slowed its fall its at 670.6 ft , it peaked at 678 or so..the top of the spillway is 785 on Feb 18th it was at 635 so it is still 35 feet higher then 3 weeks ago and only 15 feet from the top of the spillway (or secondary overflow)

NWS Birmingham ‏ Verified account @NWSBirmingham 1m1 minute ago More BREAKING: Preliminary EF-4 Tornado Damage has been found along County Road 39 just east of Cave Mill Road in southwestern Lee County. Winds have been estimated at 170mph. Single family homes were completely destroyed. Photos are from those survey locations. #alwx

interesting..if you loop the Visible satellite ..the anvils were being blown ESE...

A tornado caused heavy damage just south of downtown Cairo, Georgia, said the city's mayor, Booker Gainor. Dozens of homes and several businesses were damaged or destroyed. No reports of injuries or deaths, but several people were reportedly trapped in their homes.

carss flipped over highway 27 north of state line new tornado?

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 845 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA... NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA... SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA... * UNTIL 915 PM EST. * AT 845 PM EST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CST SUN MAR 03 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9... VALID 040136Z - 040330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS LOCALLY-EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 8 AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 9. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WAS LOCATED FROM COLQUITT COUNTY, GA SOUTH TO GULF COUNTY, FL AT 0130Z. SEVERAL TDS SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH CIRCULATIONS ALONG THIS LINE IN THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH 03-04Z ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE EARLIER MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS, AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS, THE OVERALL TREND IS SUCH THAT A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

yes the scanner feed I am listening too is a grouped together for many counties in the panhandle and GA hard to tell which area they are referring too,,something about a Walmart....but don't know where

What gives... winds are veered SW and storms are in a line but still putting down tornadoes ..and likely a strong one in Cairo not by the book edit: I guess SRH is still decent though

VERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 823 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 FLC065-073-040145- /O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190304T0145Z/ JEFFERSON FL-LEON FL- 823 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EST FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL LEON COUNTIES... AT 823 PM EST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-190304T0145Z/ THOMAS GA- 822 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EST FOR NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY... AT 822 PM EST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OCHLOCKNEE, OR 8 MILES NORTH OF THOMASVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.