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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN IL AND VICINITY...AND THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..TN VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTERN NE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER IA/WI/UPPER MI BY THIS EVENING, AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET STREAK EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM MO TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME DESTABILIZATION AS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN TOWARD OH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 70-80 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-600 M2/S2. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH RIVER AS OF LATE MORNING, AND SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SLOWED BY THE MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS, SO MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AS WILL THE MODE OF INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT (NOT STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT). THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE HIGH END FOR THE MODEST BUOYANCY, BUT IT APPEARS THE COMBINATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCED ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AS THE STORMS ARE ROUGHLY PACED BY THE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN AL. THOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES GIVEN SOME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN IL TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL SURGE/DRY SLOT NEAR AND NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS AS OF MID MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING NORTHWARD ACROSS IL WITH SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING GUSTS, AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CONVECTION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS MORE QUESTIONABLE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST, BUT WIND PROFILES WILL STRONGLY FAVOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. ..THOMPSON/BENTLEY.. 03/14/2019

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL...NORTHWEST IN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141554Z - 141730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. A TORNADO RISK WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE TORNADO RISK PERHAPS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST IN AS OF 1030AM CDT. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL IL. THE 12Z LINCOLN, IL RAOB SHOWED A VERY COLD 500MB TEMPERATURE (-21.7 DEG C) WITH AN 8 DEGREE C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATE, IT APPEARS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG TO EXTREME SHEAR PROFILE COUPLED WITH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE, IT APPEARS TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND AN UPGRADE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE UPCOMING 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IF ROBUST SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS IN FACT DEVELOP, A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE US51/I-39 CORRIDOR IN EAST-CENTRAL AND INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTERNOON. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 03/14/2019 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40189017 40859029 41988818 41828747 41108709 39318962 40189017

SPC not having the best day..back in central IL not even a marginal risk..completely obvious BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1053 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1053 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PONTIAC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGERO

EVANSVILLE in 10 min BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1039 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... EAST CENTRAL POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT. * AT 1038 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF CORYDON, OR 9 MILES WEST OF HENDERSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EVANSVILLE AND KASSON AROUND 1050 AM CDT.

ALLATIN IL-UNION KY- 1028 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES... AT 1027 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MORGANFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES.

about an hour too late RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND POTENTIALLY REACH WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

A Large Tornado just came really close to the @NWSPaducah office. It passed just SE of the Office. They had a Visual Confirmation of it. Has caused "Major Damage". They had to take shelter and transferred ops to @NWSLouisville but have taken back ops. #KYwx

where is the watch...often counties won't activate their spotter network until there is a watch.. also notice the Sun coming out over western KY into southern IND and back west over IL

NO SH!T ... SPC behind real time ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN...SOUTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141431Z - 141630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SUPERCELL INTENSITY VIA STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BUOYANCY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER TORNADO RISK SPREADING NORTHEAST IN A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST (230 DEG AT 52KT). SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN KY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES F WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST IN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS TO THE EAST ALONG THE OH RIVER, TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. THE PAH VAD SHOWS 500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. 13Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES DURING THE LATE MORNING, A RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE. UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN KY DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWEST IN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON THE NORTH-END OF THE NEAR 60 DEGREES F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 03/14/2019 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 36768915 37978866 38888751 38838670

NWS in PAH taking cover damage being reported

where is the watch SPC? now 2 TOR warned storms

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... CENTRAL MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1000 AM CDT. * AT 926 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOVELACEVILLE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE OAK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

Sun trying to come out over SW parts of the outlook area also I'm surprised there isn't a mention over central IL to NW IND for a secondary area

still down O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190310T0000Z/ CHOCTAW MS- 517 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY... AT 517 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR CREEK, OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINONA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

underperformed so far today,,especially up north but finally two cells in MS in "clearer" air and look less "grungy" SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 510 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 MSC019-097-100000- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190310T0000Z/ CHOCTAW MS-MONTGOMERY MS- 510 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR CHOCTAW AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... AT 509 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POPLAR CREEK, OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINONA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

the cells in MS look like trouble

ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 255 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 345 PM CST. * AT 255 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INNSBROOK, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... O'FALLON, ST. CHARLES, ST. PETERS, CHESTERFIELD, WILDWOOD, BALLWIN, WENTZVILLE, MARYLAND HEIGHTS, HAZELWOOD, MANCHESTER, CREVE COEUR, LAKE ST. LOUIS, BRIDGETON, DARDENNE PRAIRIE, TOWN AND COUNTRY, ELLISVILLE, DES PERES, WARRENTON, WELDON SPRING AND WRIGHT CITY. LAT...LON 3882 9110 3886 9044 3860 9046 3861 9073 3864 9073 3861 9076 3863 9112 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 274DEG 42KT 3871 9099 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.75IN WIND...60MPH

I see MEG still hasn't cleared up confusing updates after all these years ( I think this is the office I remember always doing this..maybe not) The update says SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO not "capable of" but the source says RADAR INDICATED ROTATION so is there a TOG or not? AT 238 PM CST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS, OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG HILL POND STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

tight strong rotation near walnut MS also storms over SE AR getting intersting JAN VAD still very favorable for tornadoes

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALABAMA NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CORRIDOR FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE, LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE BASE OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH, NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES, STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM SECTOR, NOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO A PLUME OF MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATES FROM NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER BY THIS EVENING, IN THE WAKE OF THE EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR REMAINS UNCERTAIN, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ON THE SOUTHERN-MOST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING, WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE BECOMING VERY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES, A COUPLE PERHAPS STRONG. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS REGION, PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 172.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS, SOME WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

2 confirmed earlier..one in AR and one in LA.. those cells you refer too are lacking instability..LLJ increasing though to 80-90 KTS! by 21z near them

yeah...there are interesting storms moving onto NE AR but that old line to the south is interfering with instability and inflow