janetjanet998

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 FLC039-073-077-129-191245- /O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190419T1245Z/ WAKULLA FL-GADSDEN FL-LIBERTY FL-LEON FL- 829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...SOUTHERN GADSDEN...SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES... AT 829 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

0331 PM TORNADO 1 NNE MORTON 32.37N 89.65W 04/18/2019 SCOTT MS COUNTY OFFICIAL HOMES DESTROYED IN NORTH PART OF MORTON, MS.

many confirmed tornadoes today in the warning text

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ..SUMMARY SEVERAL TORNADOES (A FEW SIGNIFICANT) AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ..LA/MS/AL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED FROM SOUTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL MS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FAVORABLY. CURRENTLY, A BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS, INTERSECTING THE MAIN LINE WEST OF JACKSON, MS. THESE STORMS ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E FROM THE SOUTH, AND IN A REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE DGX VWP SHOWS INCREASING SRH AHEAD OF THE LINE. LARGE SCALE LIFT, MOISTURE CONTENT AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MS, SOUTHEAST LA, AND INTO WESTERN AL LATER TODAY. THEREFORE, A THREAT OF QLCS-TYPE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

Jackson area EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 224 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019 MSC049-181945- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190418T1945Z/ HINDS MS- 224 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY... AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RAYMOND, OR NEAR CLINTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE

211 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR HINDS AND NORTH CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTIES... AT 211 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAYMOND, OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

00z RUC and HRRR models actually increase instabily the next few hours...perhaps from cooling aloft .... HRRR also breaks out cells ahead of the line.....as mentioned by SPC

3 TOR warned storms now upper GA/SC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND FAR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67... VALID 142342Z - 150045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 67. DISCUSSION...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN CENTRAL MARYLAND. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 67 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE LOW-TOPPED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING, THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 01Z.

so there was a train of three...the first one was the original TOR warned storm...its gone....the current TOR warned storms is the "second" one....and the hooky one behind that #3 now is there #4 west of number #3 now,,another mini storm and perhaps even a 5th south of #4 now along the river ?

I don't get it should have been warned long ago edit: ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 731 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT. * AT 731 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WESTMINSTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

I'm surpassed it isn't TOR wanted...tight rotation....perhaps a small CC drop?

had a hook a few sans ago..also a third mini storm on its tail too

actually the set up doesn't look too shaby......lets see if the first round goes nuts

https://twitter.com/JPKassell/status/1117548529105408000

seeing light damage reports in Shelby. via twitter....(trees snapped)

E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN HURON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHWESTERN MEDINA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO... NORTHWESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... LORAIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * AT 459 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SAVANNAH, OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASHLAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141946Z - 142045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING IN AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE OVERALL HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM WEST-CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. AS THE FRONT HAS LIFTED, BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH A COUPLE HOURS LEFT OF HEATING, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING LESS THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST, CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONGOING STORMS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. THEY WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 70 KTS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO WILL BE THE STORM MODE AS MANY CAMS SHOW ONGOING STORMS CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH TIME. SHOULD THAT OCCUR, THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

the c ells over SE OH area now trying to hook and rotate

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 310 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT. * AT 309 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 63 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST, LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO BORDER AREA IN THE EVENING. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS

Most of Ohio is clearing out now.. there seems to be a couple of confluence axis...the eastern one over eastern KY might be the most interesting as the CU field is more cellular..if storms do form here looks like they will move NNE into eastern OH also discrete stuff now gong up west of Cincy in the confluence axis SPC mentioned

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141725Z - 141930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH AGITATED CUMULUS NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS, PER VISIBLE SATELLITE, ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE ON TIMING FROM CAMS, STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE 2-3 HOURS AWAY. REGION VAD PROFILES SHOW BETWEEN 50-70 KTS OF FLOW FROM 850-700 MB. ACCORDINGLY, LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY LARGE -- WHICH HAS BEEN SAMPLED WELL BY THE JKL VAD -- ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW NEARING WILMINGTON, OH. AS HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 60-75 KTS. THIS PARAMETER SPACE SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..WENDT/GRAMS.. 04/14/2019

TOR probs increased FARTHER NORTH, SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS IN BETWEEN THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SWATH OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE CYCLONE/COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ATTENDANT NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AMID UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEW POINTS. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD YIELD ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COUPLED WITH 60+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK CENTERED ON THE UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.